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Matthew now a Category 2; Now Located Northeast of Florida

Position and intensity

As of the 8:00PM EDT intermediate advisory category 2 hurricane Matthew was located northeast of Florida, at 30.7 degrees north and 80.6 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 110 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 948 millibars, and movement was to the north at 12 miles per-hour.

U.S. watches and warnings

  • A hurricane warning is in effect from the Flagler and Volusia county line in Florida to Surf City, NC.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect from Surf City, NC to Duck, NC and for Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound.
  • A hurricane watch is in effect from Surf City, NC to Cape Lookout, NC

We expect the hurricane warning still in effect along Florida’s East Coast to be canceled  later tonight.


Track forecast for Matthew through Wednesday

Matthew is expected to turn to the northeast tonight, to the east tomorrow, and to the south on Sunday. Matthew will then continue to track south through mid-week next week, likely looping back towards Florida and the Bahamas.

At this time, it’s too early to know if Matthew will impact Florida again next week when[if] it loops back south. Both the GFS and ECMWF  forecast Matthew to impact Florida again mid-week next week; but as we said, it’s too early to know.

Intensity forecast through Wednesday

Matthew weakened to a category 2 hurricane this afternoon and will continue to weaken through this weekend into next week, weakening to a category 1 tomorrow, a tropical storm on Sunday, and a tropical depression sometime Tuesday or Wednesday.

Timing and impacts

Matthew is now located northeast of Florida; therefore, no further impacts [aside from gusty winds from the north and rough surf ] are expected along Florida’s East Coast.


This will be our final website update on Matthew unless until Sunday – if it still looks like Matthew will could possibly impact Florida again next week.

We will still be tweeting frequent updates on Matthew throughout the weekend though.

 

Matthew Nearing Florida; Will Bring Life Threatening, Devastating Impacts to Florida’s East Coast Tonight, Tomorrow

Position and intensity

As of the 8:00PM EDT intermediate advisory category 4 hurricane Matthew was located at 26.6 degrees north and 78.9 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 130 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 939 millibars, and movement was to the northwest at 13 miles per-hour.

U.S. watches and warnings

  • A hurricane warning is in effect from Golden Beach, FL to Santee River in SC.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect from Chokoloskee, FL to Golden Beach, FL; from the Antclote River in Florida to the Suwannee River in Florida; from the Florida Keys to the Seven Mile Bridge; From Santee River, in SC to Surf City, NC.
  • A tropical storm watch is in effect from Chokoloskee, FL to the Antclote River.

Track forecast for Matthew through Sunday

Tonight through tomorrow night: Matthew will continue to be steered northwest by a ridge of high pressure through tonight, forcing Matthew to the Florida Coast. The ridge will then retreat east tomorrow morning, causing Matthew to turn north and “ride” up the entire East Coast of Florida – potentially making landfall around or north of Cape Canaveral, FL tomorrow morning as it does so.

5PM EDT forecast track for Matthew
5PM EDT forecast track for Matthew

This weekend: The ridge will retreat further east Saturday morning, causing Matthew to turn to the northeast and parallel the Southeast U.S. Coast. The ridge of high pressure will then build back in to the north of Matthew late Saturday, causing Matthew to turn east, and then south on Sunday.

beyond this weekend: It now looks like Matthew will loop back towards Florida next week; but we won’t discuss that in this update.

Intensity forecast for Matthew through Sunday

Tonight through tomorrow: Matthew will remain an extremely dangerous, life threatening, category 4 hurricane through tomorrow morning, weakening slightly to a high-end category 3 hurricane tomorrow afternoon or evening. However, Matthew will remain an extremely dangerous, life threatening hurricane after weakening.

This weekend: Matthew will continue to weaken through the weekend, weakening to category 1 hurricane Saturday, and to a tropical storm Sunday.

Timing

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS: Impacts from Matthew have already begun across Florida’s East Coast, as the outer bands of Matthew are now causing tropical storm conditions in the tropical storm warning area, hurricane warning area, and tropical storm watch area within Florida.

The tropical storm conditions will persist in Florida through tomorrow, but will gradually subside as the storm moves away from Florida tomorrow night into Saturday morning.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS: Hurricane conditions have not yet begun in Florida, but will later tonight, first coming ashore between West Palm Beach and Vero Beach tonight around 12:00AM – 1:00AM EDT,  spreading north across the hurricane warning area within Florida through tonight and tomorrow.

Impacts

Matthew will bring life threatening, devastating impacts to Florida’s East Coast, and well inland, tonight  and tomorrow – even if it doesn’t make landfall and remains just off-shore of Florida’s East Coast.


Hurricane warning area: 115 mile per-hour + sustained winds with higher gusts, 3 – 9′ storm surge, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes.

Tropical storm warning area: 40 mile per-hour + winds, heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes.

Tropical storm watch area: tropical storm force wind gusts, heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes.


Preparations

The time for preparing [ buying supplies, putting up hurricane shutters, evacuating etc…] along Florida’s East Coast is over. Tropical storm conditions have already begun in the tropical storm warning area, tropical storm warning area, and tropical storm watch area in Florida, and hurricane conditions are imminent.

 

We will have another website update out on Matthew tomorrow, with continuing updates on Twitter and Facebook. 

 

Matthew Moving Through Bahamas; Will Impact Florida Tomorrow Trough Friday

Position and intensity

As of the 8:00PM EDT intermediate advisory the center of category 3 Hurricane Matthew was located at 23.0 degrees north and 76.0 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 115 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 962 millibars, and movement was to the northwest at 12 miles per-hour.

U.S. watches and warnings

  • A hurricane warnings is in effect from Golden Beach, FL to the Flagler and Volusia county line, including Lake Okeechobee.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect from Chokoloskee, FL to Golden Beach, FL.
  • A hurricane watch is in effect from the Flagler and Volusia county line to the Savannah River in Georgia.
  • A tropical storm watch is in effect from Chokoloskee, FL to the Suwannee River in Florida.

Track forecast for Matthew through Saturday

A ridge of high pressure will continue to steer Matthew to the northwest, through the Bahamas, until Friday morning. After that time, the ridge of high pressure will retreat to the east, causing Matthew to turn to the north-northwest, and then to the north Friday afternoon.

By late Saturday Matthew should begin to move to the northeast, away from Florida.

At this time it looking increasingly likely that Matthew will “ride” up the East Coast of Florida Thursday through Friday, likely making landfall along Florida’s East Coast between West Palm Beach, Fl and Cape Canaveral, Fl on Friday.

Landfall is still not a sure thing though, and Matthew could remain just off-shore of Florida’s East Coast; but a landfall is looking more likely at this point.

NOTE: We also wanted to note that some of the model guidance has Matthew loop back towards Florida and the Bahamas early next week; but it’s too early to know if that will actually happen or not.

Intensity forecast for Matthew through Saturday

Matthew slightly weakened to a category 3 hurricane today. However, Matthew will rapidly re-intensify tonight and tomorrow, likely becoming a high-end category 4 hurricane once again. Matthew will likely maintain category 4 [if it re-attains category 4 status again as expected] status through Friday, before weakening to a category 2 Friday night or early Saturday.

Timing

Impacts from Matthew will begin early tomorrow, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the tropical storm warning area early tomorrow, spreading north through tomorrow and Friday. In addition, Tropical storm conditions, particularity tropical storm force wind gusts, will be possible in the tropical storm watch area throughout the day tomorrow.

Then, late tomorrow, hurricane conditions will begin in the hurricane warning area, and will spread north through Thursday night and Friday. In addition, hurricane conditions will be possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday through early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible as early as early Friday.

Impacts

Even if Matthew remains just off-shore and doesn’t make landfall, hurricane conditions and tropical storm conditions will impact the watch and warned zones.


mathew-forecast-wind-field-2
Forecast wind field for Matthew

Hurricane warning area: Sustained winds of 130mph with higher gusts, life threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes.

Hurricane watch area: Hurricane force winds, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes.

Tropical storm warning area: Sustained winds of 40 – 60mph with higher gusts, storm surge, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes.

Tropical storm watch area: Tropical storm force wind gusts, heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes.


Preparedness

If you are in Florida, and are under a hurricane warning, you should be actively making preparations for Matthew; and if you aren’t you need to do so right away.

In addition, if you receive an evacuation order, you should follow the order and evacuate.

For information regarding evacuation orders, evacuation routes, and evacuation shelters you should consult your local authorities or go to floridadisaster.org.

We will have another full update out on Matthew tomorrow night, with brief updates on Facebook and Twitter throughout the day tomorrow. 

Matthew Still a Major Hurricane; Direct Impacts to Florida Likely

Current intensity and position

As of the 11:00PM EDT advisory Matthew was located at 20.4 degrees north and 74.4 degrees west. Maximum sustained were 130 mile per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 950 millibars, and movement was to the north at 8 miles per-hour.

Current U.S. watches and warnings
  • A hurricane watch is in effect from Golden Beach, Florida to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and for lake Okeechobee.
  • A hurricane watch is in effect from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County line.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Florida Keys to the seven mile bridge, and for Florida Bay.

If you are under a tropical storm warning, hurricane warming, or hurricane watch you should review your hurricane plan, and prepare for impacts Matthew.

Forecast track for Matthew through Friday

Matthew will move into the Southern Bahamas later tonight, and will continue to track north. Then, tomorrow morning, a ridge of high pressure will build in to the east and northeast of Matthew, causing Matthew to turn to the north-northwest, and then to the northwest.

mathew-cone-10
Official 3 day forecast track for Matthew as of 11PM EDT 10/4/16

Matthew will continue to track to the northwest through the Bahamas over the next 2 days, reaching the Northern Bahamas late Thursday. Then, late Thursday and early Friday, Matthew will likely turn back to the north-northwest, to the North late Friday, and then northeast on Saturday.

At this time we still don’t know if Matthew will make landfall in Florida, track north along, Florida’s East Coast, or track north offshore of Florida’s East Coast.

The 18z GFS  forecasts Matthew to track north, just off Florida’s East Coast late Thursday through late Friday. Meanwhile, the 12z ECMWF forecasts Matthew to make landfall along Florida’s East Coast Friday morning.

Intensity forecast for Matthew through Friday

Matthew has weakened to a low end category 4 hurricane, and will likely maintain its current intensity through Thursday. However, Mathew could potentially re-intensify into a high end category 4 hurricane over the next two days, which is currently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF.

The National Hurricane Center [NHC] does not call for re-intensification, but the potential is there.

Regardless of re-intensification, Matthew will likely be a major hurricane when it impacts Florida.

Timing

Matthew will impact Florida late Thursday through Friday.

Impacts

Since we don’t know if Matthew will make landfall in Florida, move north along Florida’s East Coast, or remain offshore of Florida, details regarding impacts to Florida’s East Coast from Matthew are not clear.

mathew-ts-wind-speed-probabilites

However, tropical storm conditions are likely along Florida’s East Coast beginning late Thursday through Friday – even if Matthew remains offshore; but, if Matthew makes landfall along Florida’s East Coast or tracks north right along Florida’s East Coast, hurricane conditions will occur along portions of Florida’s East Coast.

Hopefully we will know more about Matthew’s likely impacts to Florida’s East Coast by tomorrow.

We will have another update out on Matthew tomorrow. 

 

Matthew Still a Category 4; Chances of Florida Being Directly Impacted have Increased Some

Current position and intensity

As of 8:00PM EDT Matthew was located at 16.6 degrees north and 74.6 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 140mph, the minimum central pressure was 934 millibars, and movement was to the north-northeast at 8 miles per-hour.

Forecast track for Matthew through Friday
5PM EDT forecast cone for Matthew
Figure 1. 5PM EDT forecast cone for Matthew

Matthew’s current north-northeast movement is likely temporary, and Matthew should resume moving north soon, and will continue moving north through tomorrow, making landfall in West Haiti tonight, and in East Cuba tomorrow. Then, late tomorrow, Matthew will move into the Southern Bahamas.

As Matthew moves into the Bahamas tomorrow a ridge of high pressure will build in to the east and northeast of Matthew, causing Matthew to turn to the north-northwest , and to the northwest on Wednesday. Matthew is then expected to turn back to the northwest on Thursday, and to the north on Friday.

We still don’t know if Matthew will make landfall along or directly impact Florida’s East Coast or not.

 

However,  the vast majority of the model guidance [ including the reliable GFS, ECMWF, and their ensembles] have trended west, closer to Florida today.

Intensity forecast for Matthew through Friday

Matthew will maintain it’s current intensity until landfall in Haiti tonight and landfall in East Cuba tomorrow, and will likely weaken to a category 2 – 3 hurricane tomorrow night due to land interaction with Haiti and Cuba.

However, Matthew could then potentially  re-intensify between tomorrow night and Friday though.

The official National Hurricane Center does not call for re-intensification, but it is a possibility.

Timing of potential Florida impacts

As we stated above, we still don’t know if Matthew will make landfall along or directly impact Florida’s East Coast.

However, if Matthew were to make landfall in or directly impact Florida, it would likely be sometime between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon.

Summary
  • Details regarding Matthew’s track and intensity beyond Wednesday are uncertain.
  • Model guidance has trended west today, increasing Matthew’s chance of directly impacting Florida.
  • However, model guidance could still shift back back east, continue to shift west, or not shift at all.
  • We still don’t know if Matthew will directly impact Florida or make landfall in Florida.
  • If Matthew were to impact Florida it would be Thursday and Friday.

If you are within the cone of uncertainty [figure 1.] you shouldn’t panic over Matthew; but you should go ahead and review your hurricane plan.

We will have another update out on Matthew tomorrow. 

TROPICAL UPDATE: Matthew Still a Powerful Category 4 Hurricane; Still too Early to Know if U.S. will be Impacted

As of the 11:00PM EDT advisory Matthew was located at 14.7 degrees north and 75.0  degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 145 miles per-hour, pressure was 943 millibars, and movement was to the north at 5 miles per-hour.

Matthew’s 145 mile per-hour sustained winds make it a high end category 4 hurricane.

Short-term forecast track [through Tuesday]

Nothing has changed regarding Matthew’s short-term forecast track since our previous update.

Matthew will continue to move north over the next 48 hours, making landfall Haiti tomorrow, and Eastern Cuba Tuesday.

Late Tuesday Matthew move into the Bahamas, likely make a turn towards the northwest or north-northwest [see .

Short-term intensity forecast [through Tuesday]

Unfortunately, Matthew is no longer expected to weaken [other than typical minor fluctuation in intensity] prior to landfall in Haiti and East Cuba as we stated in our previous update. Instead, Matthew will likely maintain its current intensity, or possibly rapidly intensify again, over the next 24 – 36 hours.

Presently the National Hurricane Center [NHC] forecast, as of 11:00PM EDT , is for Matthew to make landfall in Haiti and Cuba as a high end, extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 miles per-hour.

Late Tuesday Matthew will weaken some due to land interaction with Haiti and Cuba.

Matthew will likely weaken Tuesday, and the NHC forecasts Matthew to weaken to a category 3 hurricane Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday

Beyond Tuesday details regarding Matthew’s track and intensity remain uncertain; therefore, we still don’t know if Matthew will impact the United States.

However, at this time it looks like Matthew will move east of Florida, as a category 2 -3 hurricane, and likely won’t make landfall in – or directly impact – Florida; both can’t be ruled out yet, but the chances are low at this time.

Since Matthew likely won’t directly impact or make landfall Florida, this will be our last update on Matthew.

If Matthew’s chances of directly impacting Florida or making landfall in Florida go up, we will begin issuing updates on Matthew again. 

Matthew Still a Powerful Category 4 Hurricane; Long-term Forecast RemainsUncertain

As of the 11:00PM EDT advisory hurricane Matthew was located at 13.8 degrees north and 73.6 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 150 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 940 millibars, and movement was north-northwest at 7 miles per-hour.

Mathew’s 150 mile per-hour winds make it a high end category 4 hurricane.

Short-term forecast track for Mathew

Matthew finally started to feel the influence of the trough over the East Gulf of Mexico this evening. In addition, the ridge that has been steering Matthew to the west/west-southwest over the past 4 – 5 days has started to weaken. The aforementioned events have caused Matthew to turn towards the north-northwest as forecast.


Matthew will continue to move towards the north-northwest through tomorrow evening, but will turn to the north overnight tomorrow.

Matthew is then expected to make landfall in West Haiti late Monday, and in East Cuba early Tuesday.

By Tuesday afternoon Mathew should be located in the Bahamas.

Short-term intensity forecast for Matthew

Matthew will gradually weaken tomorrow, and will likely continue to do so until landfall in Haiti and Cuba Monday into Tuesday. However, at this time it appears likely that Matthew will remain a powerful low end category 4 or high end category 3 hurricane until landfall Monday in Haiti, and early Tuesday in Cuba.

Matthew will likely re-intensify over the Bahamas on Tuesday after exiting Haiti and Cuba.

Long-term forecast

Nothing has really changed since our previous update.

Details regarding both Matthew’s track and intensity beyond Tuesday remain highly uncertain as the GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, and EPS are still in disagreement beyond Tuesday.

Since details regarding Matthew’s track and intensity remain highly uncertain in the long-term, and nothing has really changed sine our previous update, we won’t discuss them tonight.

We will have another update out on Matthew tomorrow. 

Matthew on the Verge of Category 5 Status; Long-term Outlook Remains Uncertain

Matthew rapidly intensified into a category 4 hurricane today.

11:00PM EDT UPDATE: Matthew is now a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per-hour. 

Position and intensity

As of the 8:00PM EDT advisory Matthew was located at 13.5 degrees north and 72.0 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 150 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 945 millibars, and movement was to the west-southwest at 9 miles per-hour.

Short-term forecast

Details regarding Matthew’s track and intensity are fairly strait forward.

Short-term forecast track

Matthew is presently being steered west-southwest by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will allow Matthew to continue tracking west-southwest until it reaches the Central Caribbean tomorrow. Then, sometime late tomorrow the ridge will erode,  and Matthew will begin to feel the influence of a trough over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, causing Matthew to slow down significantly and turn to the northwest.

9/30/16 5PM EDT forecast cone for Mathew
9/30/16 5PM EDT forecast cone for Mathew

Then, on Sunday, Matthew should begin to turn to the north-northwest and then to the north. Matthew should continue moving north through at least Tuesday, making landfall in Jamaica Monday, and in East Cuba late Monday or early Tuesday.

By late Tuesday Matthew should be located just north of East Cuba in the Bahamas.

Short-term intensity forecast

Matthew will continue to intensify through tonight, and could very possibly become a category 5 hurricane.  However, tomorrow Matthew will likely weaken slightly, but should re-intensify Sunday and Monday on its approach to Jamaica and Cuba.

Long-term forecast

Details regarding both Matthew’s track and intensity beyond Tuesday remain uncertain.

Long-term forecast track

The GFS, ECMWF, and their ensembles (the GEFS and EPS) still disagree on Matthew’s forecast track beyond Tuesday.

The GFS and GEFS forecast the trough over the East Gulf of Mexico to lift out on Wednesday, and the ridge currently steering Matthew to remain build back in. The result of the aforementioned factors is Matthew essentially paralleling the entire East Coast.

gfs-mathew-3
GFS 500MB vort and heights valid 10/6/16

Meanwhile, the ECMWF and EPS are forecasting forecasting the trough over the East Gulf of Mexico to lift out by Monday or Tuesday, and the ridge currently steering Matthew to remain build back in. The result of the aforementioned factors is Matthew essentially meandering around in the Bahamas through next weekend.

Long-term intensity forecast

The GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, and EPS are all in agreement on Matthew remaining a major hurricane over the Southwest Atlantic next week. However, the exact details regarding Matthew’s intensity beyond this weekend remain highly uncertain.

Summary

Details regarding Matthew’s track and intensity beyond Tuesday remain highly uncertain, and we don’t yet know if Mathew will impact the United States or not. But, we can say that at this time it does not look like Matthew will impact the Gulf Coast.

However, Matthew could still potentially impact anywhere from Florida to Maine; and since Florida is a Gulf Coast state, we will continue to provide updates on Matthew.

We will have another update out on Matthew tomorrow afternoon. 

Mathew now a Hurricane; Uncertainty Remains High in Long-term

Mathew intensified into a hurricane over the East Caribbean this afternoon – making it the 5th hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

Position and intensity

As of the 11:00PM EDT advisory Mathew was located at 14.1 degrees north and 68.8 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 80 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 983 millibars, and movement was to the west at 14 miles per-hour.

Short-term forecast for Mathew

Mathew should continue to intensify over the next several days as it tracks west to west-southwest through the Caribbean.

Short-term forecast track
mathew-cone-3
9/29/16 11PM EDT forecast track for Mathew

Mathew is presently being steered west/west-southwest by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will allow Mathew to continue tracking west-southwest until it reaches the Central Caribbean Saturday. Then, sometime late Saturday the ridge should erode, allowing Mathew to slow down significantly and turn to the northwest.

However, beyond this weekend details regarding the track of Mathew remain extremely uncertain.

Short-term intensity forecast

Mathew is currently experiencing 10 – 20kts of wind shear out of the southwest, which will likely continue through tomorrow afternoon. However, other than that Mathew is a generally favorable environment for intensification. Therefore, Mathew should gradually intensify through tomorrow.

Although, by late tomorrow evening wind shear should significantly decrease, allowing Mathew to further intensify – potentially rapidly. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Mathew to become a category 2 hurricane early Saturday, and a high end category 2 with maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per-hour by Sunday.

beyond Saturday details regarding Mathew’s intensity remain extremely uncertain as well.

Long-term forecast for Mathew

As stated above, details regarding both Mathew’s track and intensity beyond Saturday remain extremely uncertain. The cause if the uncertainty would be the disagreement on among the two more reliable global models (the GFS and ECMWF) and their ensembles (the GEFS and EPS) on where Mathew will ultimately track and how strong it will be after Saturday.

Long-term forecast track

The GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS are all in agreement on Mathew tracking north or northwestward into the Bahamas around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Therefore, the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center reflects this.

However, that is pretty much where the agreement ends.

The GFS and GEFS place a trough over the East Gulf of Mexico early next week. In addition, they are forecasting the ridge currently steering Mathew to remain eroded. The result of the two aforementioned factors is Mathew getting pulled to the north east of Florida rather quickly during the first half of next week.

GFS initialized 9/29/16 valid 10/3/16
GFS initialized 9/29/16 valid 10/4/16

Meanwhile, the ECMWF and EPS place a trough further west, over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, they are forecasting the ridge currently steering Mathew to redevelop somewhat. The result of the two aforementioned factors is Mathew meandering rather slowly northwestward just off of the coast of the Southeast United States from Wednesday through next weekend.

Both scenarios are equally possible, and both could cause Mathew to make landfall anywhere from Florida to Maine or track out to sea.

Long-term intensity forecast

The long-term intensity forecast for Mathew appears to be a bit more certain than the long-term track forecast.

The GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS are all forecasting Mathew to become a major hurricane this weekend or early next week. However, it is extremely hard to forecast the intensity of a tropical cyclone more than a 3 – 5 days in advance; so, how strong Mathew ultimately becomes early next week is still uncertain.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Mathew to be a high end category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 miles per-hour  in the Bahamas Tuesday.

Summary

Details regarding Mathew’s track and intensity beyond Saturday remain highly uncertain, and we don’t yet know if Mathew will impact the United States or not. But, we can say that at this time it does not look like Mathew will impact the Gulf Coast.

However, Mathew could still potentially impact anywhere from Florida to Maine; and since Florida is a Gulf Coast state, we will continue to provide updates on Mathew.

NOTE: The chances of Mathew tracking into the Gulf of Mexico at this time are low, but not completely zero. 

We will have another update on Mathew tomorrow night. 

TROPICAL UPDATE: Tropical Storm Mathew Forms Over East Caribbean; Likely to Become a Hurricane Tomorrow

Invest 97-L was upgraded to Tropical Storm Mathew this morning; and the forecast is pretty strait forward through Saturday. However, it becomes very uncertain beyond then.

Position and Intensity

As of the 11:00PM EDT advisory Tropical Storm Mathew was located at 13.9 degrees north and 62.4 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 65 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 1004 millibars, and movement was to the west at 15 miles per-hour.

3 Day Forecast for Mathew

mathew-cone-2

Mathew is expected to continue to track generally track westward across the East Caribbean through Friday, becoming a hurricane tomorrow. Then on Saturday Mathew will move into the Central Caribbean, where it will likely continue to intensify.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Mathew to intensify into a hurricane by tomorrow night.

The global model guidance is in very good agreement regarding the forecast for Mathew through Saturday, essentially forecasting the aforementioned too come to fruition.

Beyond day 3

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Mathew to turn towards the northwest on Saturday and to strengthen into a category 2 hurricane on Sunday.

However, after Saturday details regarding Mathew’s eventual fate (track and intensity) remain highly uncertain.

EPS members initialized 12z 9/28/16 valid 10/7/16
EPS members initialized 12z 9/28/16 valid 10/7/16

The GFS and GFS ensemble members (GEFS) are still insistent on forecasting the ridge currently steering Mathew to the west to break down, allowing Mathew to move Northward out to sea or up the East Coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and most of the ECMWF ensembles (EPS) are still insistent on forecasting the ridge to remain in place, allowing Mathew to move northwest, west-northwest, or west into the Bahamas, Southeast US, Northwestern Caribbean, or Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Although, the  GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS are all in agreement on Mathew intensifying into a major hurricane sometime this weekend or early next week.

NOTE:  The GFS and GEFS have continued to trend some towards the ECMWF and EPS solution today.

Summary

Tropical Storm Mathew will likely become a hurricane tomorrow and move into the Central Caribbean Saturday. However, after Saturday details regarding Mathew’s track and intensity remain highly uncertain.

It is too early to know if Mathew will impact the US.

We will have another update out on Mathew tomorrow night.