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TROPICAL UPDATE: Invest 92-L Disorganized, Unlikely to Develop

As of 9:00PM EDT invest 92-L was located over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico at 23.8 degrees north 84.2 degrees west, had maximum sustained winds of 25mph, a minimum central pressure of 1013 millibars, and was moving to the west-southwest.

Forecast for 92-L

Invest 92-L still has a well defined surface circulation; but, due to unfavorable environmental conditions, it has little to no associated thunderstorm activity.

92-L will continue to track west across the Southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days, reaching the Western Gulf of Mexico by the middle of this upcoming week.

Development odds

 

Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical development across the Southern and Western Gulf of Mexico over the next five days; and none of the reliable model guidance (ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and CMC) develops invest 92-L.

In their 8:00PM EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave invest 92-L a low chance (10% )chance of developing over the next 2 days and 5 days.

Overall, development of invest 92-L is unlikely.

This will be our final update on invest 92-L unless it somehow manages to develop (which is unlikely).

 

TROPICAL UPDATE: Invest 92-L Designated over Florida Straits, is Worth Monitoring

 

An area of low pressure with a well defined circulation developed over the Florida Straits this morning; and the National Hurricane Center designated it invest 92-L early this afternoon.

As of 9:00AM EDT invest 92-L was located over the Florida Straits at 24 degrees north and 79.5 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 30 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 1012 millibars, and movement was to the west-northwest.

Forecast for 92-L

Invest 92-L has a well defined circulation and a modest amount of thunderstorm activity. However, the thunderstorm activity is disorganized, located to the southeast of it’s center.

92-L’s lack of  organization is due to both unfavorable upper-level winds (wind shear) and dry air impacting it.

The unfavorable upper-level winds (wind shear) and dry air currently impacting 92-L will persist over the next day or two; and 92-L likely won’t develop during this time.

12z track guidance for invest 92-L initialized 12z 9/9/16
12z track guidance for invest 92-L initialized 12z 9/9/16

However, 92-L is expected to track west-northwest into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico tomorrow or Sunday, and it is possible upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable for development; but dry air will remain an issue.

Development odds

In their 2:00PM EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center have 92-L a 40% chance of developing over the next 48 hours and 5 days.

At this time 92-L is not a expected to develop, and is not a threat. However, it does have some potential to develop and it is worth monitoring.

If 92-L does  manage to develop it is too early to know where it would track and how strong it would become.

We will have another update out on 92-l  tomorrow. 

 

 

BREAKING: Hermine now a Hurricane, Will Make Landfall Tonight Along Northeast Gulf Coast

Tropical storm Hermine intensified into a category one hurricane this afternoon.

As of the special  4:00PM CDT  advisory hurricane Hermine was moving to the north-northeast at 14mph , had maximum sustained winds of 75mph, and a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars.

Watches and warnings

hermine warnings.gif
Hermine surface wind field and watches/warnings
  •  A hurricane waring remains in effect from Suwanne River, Florida to Mexico Beach Florida.
  • A hurricane watch also remains in effect from Antclote River, Florida to Suwanne River, Florida and from Mexico Beach, Florida to Destin, Florida.
  • A tropical storm warning also remains in effect from Englewood, Florida to Suwannee River, Florida and from Mexico Beach, Florida to Destin, Florida.

Forecast track/intensity

Nothing has changed since our update this morning.

hermine track 4
4:00PM CDT forecast track for hurricane Hermine from the National Hurricane Center

Hermine will continue to intesify over the next 6 – 10 hours, making landfall in or just East of Apalachicola, Florida tonight around 1:00 or 2:00AM CDT  as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 – 85mph.

Impacts

The expected impacts from Hermine have not changed since our update this morning.

Life threatening storm surge of 6 – 8 feet, flash flooding from 6 – 12″ of rainfall, tornadoes, and downed trees and power lines from damaging wind gusts in between 80 – 90mph will occur in areas under the hurricane warning.

Storm surge of 3 – 6 feet, downed power lines and trees from wind gusts of 50 – 70mph, flash flooding from 3 – 6″ of rainfall, and tornadoes could also occur in the areas under the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch.

NOTE: The worst weather will be to the north, northeast, and east side of Hermine. 

Hermine should weaken to a tropical storm over the Florida Panhandle or Southern Georgia after landfall tonight.

We will have continuing updates on Facebook and Twitter this evening and tonight.  

Tropical Depression Nine Likely to Strengthen, Make Landfall Along Gulf Coast

Today a hurricane hunter aircraft investigated invest 99-L and finally confirmed that it had a closed circulation,  therefor the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to tropical depression nine and began issuing advisories on it this at 5:00PM ET today.

As of the 10:00pm ET advisory, tropical depression nine was located over the Florida Straits at 23.4 degrees north and 81.7 degrees west. The minimum central pressure was 1007 millibars, maximum sustained winds were 35 miles per hour, and movement was to the west at 9 miles per hour.

Forecast fort tropical depression nine

Tropical depression nine is expected to continue on it’s current westward track reaching the Southeast Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, where wind shear should be at a more favorable level of 10 – 15kts.

The decrease in shear could should allow tropical depression nine to strengthen into a 40 mile per hour tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon.

From there what will likely be tropical storm “Hermine” should track northwest and then north entering the Central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday where it will have the opportunity to intensify further into a 45 mile per hour tropical storm.

Things become less certain beyond Tuesday.

However, it looks like potential “Hermine” will continue to intensify into a moderate to strong tropical storm between Wednesday and early Thursday before making landfall somewhere between Apalachicola, Florida and Cape Coral, Florida late Thursday.

At this time the chances of tropical depression nine making landfall somewhere in Southeast Louisiana, Southern Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and much of the Western Florida Panhandle have gone down – but they are still not zero.

However, all of this could change tomorrow or Tuesday, because as we stated, things are less certain beyond Tuesday.

If you live anywhere between New Orleans, Louisiana to Cape Coral, Florida you should closely monitor the progress of tropical depression nine.

We should have a better idea on where tropical depression nine is ultimately going to track and how strong it is going to get by tomorrow or Tuesday.

We will have continuing updates on tropical depression nine tomorrow and throughout the week. 

 

 

 

 

 

TROPICAL UPDATE: Don’t Write Off 99-L Yet

Invest 99-L I still located over the Southern Bahamas this evening just north of Central Cuba at 23.5 degrees north and 79.0 degrees west moving to the west-northwest at about 5 – 10 miles per hour.

99-L finally appears to have finally developed a circulation today – albeit a broad one. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized due to 15 – 20kts of shear, some drier air, and land interaction with Cuba.

 

However, the fact that 99-l has developed a broad center indicates that it has slowly become better organized today despite the wind shear, dry air, and land interaction.

Development odds

99l models 12
18z track guidance for 99-L initialized 18z 8/27/16 

99-L is expected to continue moving to the west-northwest through the Florida Straits tomorrow; and It is possible that 99-L could organize even further tomorrow as shear and dry air could decrease slightly; but land interaction with Cuba will remain a problem.

All in all, 99-L could become further organized tomorrow, but development of 99-L into a tropical depression or storm is unlikely during the next day or two.

By Monday 99-L is expected to track into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and it is possible environmental conditions could further improve for 99-L potentially allowing it to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

ecmwf 26
12z ECMWF initialized 8/27/16 valid 8/31/16 

The latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, CMC, and HWRF develop 99-L into a tropical storm over the Southeast/Central Gulf of Mexico early/mid-week.

As of their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave 99-L a 40% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 50% chance of developing over the next five days.

If invest 99-L does develop this week (50/50 chance) it would likely track toward the Central or East Gulf Coast making landfall anywhere between Southeast Louisiana and the Big Bend region of Florida.

We can’t speculate on potential the exact track and potential intensity yet as the exact evolution of 99-L still remains highly uncertain.

However, we will note that if 99-L develops there likely won’t be anything to impede it from strengthening in the Gulf.

If you live anywhere along the East or Central Gulf Coast you should continue to monitor the progress of 99-L over the next few days.

We should know more about the eventual fate of 99-L by Monday.

We will be back with another update on 99-L by tomorrow night.

TROPICAL UPDATE: Little Change Regarding 99-L

There has been little change with invest 99-L today; it is presently located over the Southern Bahamas and remains disorganized.

Wind shear finally dropped to a more favorable 10 – 15 kts over 99-L this morning and this afternoon causing a significant uptick in sustainable thunderstorm activity with 99-L that has continued into tonight.  However, the increase in thunderstorm activity is confined to the east and northeast of 99-L’s center which indicates that 99-L remains disorganized.

Some drier air getting en-trained into 99-L appears to be the main reason 99-L remains disorganized despite the drop in shear.

Dry air will likely continue to plague 99-L over the next day or two preventing it from developing this weekend.

ukmet 7
12Z UKMET initialized 8/26/16 valid 8/31/16 

However, 99-L is still expected to track west-northwest into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico early this upcoming week; and it is possible that environmental conditions could become slightly more favorable by then potentially allowing 99-L to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

The latest runs of the UKMET, CMC,  and HWRF are picking up on this potential and continue to develop 99-L into a tropical storm over the Southeast Gulf over early next week. On the other hand, the latest runs of the more reliable GFS and ECMWF do not.

As of their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave 99-L a 20% chance of developing over the next  2 days and a 50% chance of developing over the next 5 days.

Basically  99-L’s chances of developing over the next several days have diminished further but have not diminished completely.

If 99-L does develop over the Gulf early this upcoming week it would potentially track anywhere from Southeast Louisiana to the West Coast of Florida.

Summary

The bottom line is that much uncertainty remains regarding the evolution 99-L over the next several days. However, 99-L developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next several days is looking less and less likely; but still can’t be ruled out.

If 99-L manages to develop sometime early this week it would likely track towards the North-Central Gulf Coast.

We will have another update out tomorrow.

Invest 99-L Remains Disorganized; Chances of Development are Decreasing

Invest 99-L remains very disorganized this evening, and it’s chances of development have decreased slightly. However it can’t be written  written of completely yet.

Development odds

As stated above, invest 99-L’s chances of developing over the next several days have decreased and it remains very disorganized this evening due to a persistent band of moderate to high wind shear that continues to impact it.

This is not surprising, as most models – namely the reliable ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF -didn’t have 99-L organizing substantially until tomorrow or Saturday when it reached more favorable environmental conditions in the Bahamas.

However, this no longer appears to be the case as environmental conditions are no longer expected to be conductive in the Bahamas tomorrow and this weekend as was originally expected.

In addition, it appears likely that the current center of 99-L will run into Cuba tonight and dissipate.

As a result, the ECMWF and HWRF have backed off on developing 99-L within the next 72 – 96 hours.

Therefor,  99-L’s chances of developing into a tropical storm over the Bahamas tomorrow or Saturday have decreased to near zero along with the chances of South Florida and the Florida Keys being impacted by a tropical storm on Sunday or Monday.

However, invest 99-L can’t be written of completely yet because shear could become slightly more favorable potentially allowing a new center to form sometime within the next several days.

If a new center forms there is a chance 99-L could develop into a tropical depression or storm over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday or Monday.

ecmwf 25
12Z ECMWF valid 8/25/16

The latest runs of the ECMWF and HWRF are picking up on this potential, and they both develop 99-L over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday.

if 99-L does develop over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico it is too early to know where it would track and what the intensity would be.

As of their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center placed 99-L’s chances of developing at 60% over the next five days.

We believe 99-L’s chances of developing over the next 5 days are lower, around 40 – 50%.

Summary

99-L is no longer expected to develop into a tropical storm over the Bahamas tomorrow or Saturday. However, there is a chance 99-L could develop once it reaches the Southeast Gulf of Mexico if it can form a new center sometime within the next several days.

However, the chances of it developing have gone down significantly today; but development still can’t be entirely  ruled out.

The bottom line is that there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding the evolution of 99-L over the next several days.

NOTE: Invest 99-L is no longer expected to impact South Florida as a tropical storm any longer. 

We will have another update out tomorrow. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TROPICAL UPDATE: 99-l Still Highly Likely to Develop in Bahamas Tomorrow or Saturday

Invest  99-L’s chances of developing tomorrow or Saturday and then impacting South or Central Florida on Sunday or Monday remain high.

As of 8:00am EDT invest 99-L was located just north if Hispaniola. Maximum sustained winds were 40mph, the minimum central pressure was 1008 millibars, and movement was to the west-northwest.

Forecast for 99-L

Overall, invest 99-L remains disorganized this morning; and satellite data and data from a USAF hurricane hunter plane indicates that 99-L is still lacking a well defined center. The main reason 99-L remains so disorganized is because a band of moderate to high wind shear is currently impacting it.

However, as we stated in our update last night – significant development of 99-L was not expected overnight and throughout much of the day today.

Wind shear is expected to become favorable for the development of 99-L by tonight and tomorrow when it reaches the Bahamas. This will likely allow 99-L to develop into a tropical storm by tomorrow or Saturday.

The latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and HWRF continue to  develop 99-L into a tropical storm over the Bahamas by tomorrow or Saturday. Most of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members remain in agreement with the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and HWRF.

In their 8:00am EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave invest 99-L an 50% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 80% chance of developing over the next 5 days.

NOTE: Development of 99-L is still not guaranteed.

Potential track

If 99-L develops into a tropical storm tomorrow or Saturday the consensus is still for it to track very near South Florida or through the Florida Straits before entering the Gulf on Monday or Tuesday.

99l models 11
12Z track guidance for 99-L initialized 12z 8/25/16

There is also a chance 99-L could track across  South Florida as a tropical storm on Sunday before moving into the Southeast or East Gulf of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday.

However, At this time it looks more likely that 99-L will track very near South Florida or go through the Florida Straits.

NOTE: There is still a large degree of uncertainty regarding the potential track of 99-L beyond the next 4 – 5 days. 

Potential intensity

There is still a great amount of uncertainty regarding the potential intensity of 99-L – especially beyond the next 4 – 5 days. Although, we can say that with a  degree of confidence that 99-L will likely impact South Florida as a moderate to strong tropical storm.

Once 99-L gets into the Gulf (which looks very likely at this time) there likely won’t be anything to impede it from strengthening into a hurricane.

NOTE: There is still a great amount of uncertainty regarding the potential intensity of 99-L – especially beyond the next 4 – 5 days.

Summary

The bottom line is that 99-L will likely develop into a tropical storm over the Bahamas tomorrow or Saturday and will likely impact South Florida on Sunday as a moderate to strong tropical storm and track into the Southeast Gulf on Monday or Tuesday where it will likely strengthen.

99-L remains nothing to panic over.

However, if you live in South Florida you should review your hurricane evacuation plans and supplies as watches and warnings could be issued as early as tomorrow.

If you live along the Northern/Central Gulf Coast  you should monitor the progress of 99-L over the next several days.

NOTE: It is important to note that the forecast evolution of 99-L is still very uncertain at this point. Although, it does appear to be the most likely outcome.

We will have another update out on 99-L tonight. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TROPICAL UPDATE: Invest 99-L Likely to Develop in Bahamas on Friday or Saturday

Invest 99-L still has a high chance of developing over the next several days.

As of 8:00pm EDT invest 99-L was located just to the Northeast of Puerto Rico at 18.7 degrees north and 65.4 degrees west. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, a minimum central pressure of 1009 millibars, and was moving west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour.

Development Chances for 99-L

Invest 99-L had become better organized overnight last night. However, that increase in organization did not last.

Presently 99-L is still a very broad, disorganized low that is lacking a well defined center of circulation; and it won’t be able to develop further until it is able to develop and maintain a well defined center of circulation.

The chances of this occurring within the next 24 – 36 hours are relatively low, but not zero as environmental conditions will only be marginally favorable for the development of 99-L during this time.

However, there is a very high chance that 99-L will develop a well defined center sometime between late tomorrow and Saturday in the Central or Northwestern Bahamas allowing it to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

ecmwf 24
ECMWF model initialized 12z 8/24/16 valid 8/28/16

The latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and HWRF all develop invest 99-L into a tropical depression or storm over the Bahamas between late tomorrow and Saturday. In addition, most of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members develop 99-L between late tomorrow and Saturday as well.

In their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave invest 99-L a 50% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 80% chance of developing over the next 5 days.

Potential track for 99-L over the next 5 days

99l models 10
00z Track guidance for 99-L initialized 00z 8/25/16 

If 99-L develops (remains more likely to develop then not) the consensus among the latest models is still for 99-L to track into Southern or Central Florida on Sunday or Monday and then track into the East or Southeast Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

It is still too early to discuss details regarding track beyond Tuesday.

Potential intensity

We won’t elaborate on potential intensity in the short or long term.

However, If 99-L develops (remains more likely to develop then not) it would likely be a tropical storm – potentially a strong – before making a potential landfall (if it develops) in South or Central Florida. From there it would have the potential to strengthen – potentially into a hurricane – over the Southeast or East Gulf of Mexico.

Summary

Overall invest 99-L has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the Bahamas over the next several days. If 99-L develops it will likely impact South or Central Florida on Sunday or Monday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

Beyond five days things become very uncertain and therefor we will not discuss potential track, intensity, and impacts beyond five days.

NOTE: It is important to keep in mind that development off 99-L is still not completely guaranteed.

The bottom line is that plenty of uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of  99-L over the next few days and it remains nothing to panic over.

However, if you live in South or Central Florida you should be prepared for a potential tropical cyclone making landfall on Sunday or Monday. Ideally you should check your hurricane supplies and go over your evacuation plan. It never hurts to be prepared.

If you live along the North/Central Gulf Coast you should closely monitor the progress of 99-L over the next few days.

We will have another update out tomorrow morning. 

 

 

 

Invest 99-L has High Chance of Developing in Bahamas Late This Week

It is now looking increasingly likely that invest 99-L will develop in the Bahamas later this week.

As of 8:00pm EDT invest 99-L was located over the Western Tropical Atlantic just east of the Greater Antilles at 16.5 degrees north and 58.9 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 35 miles per hour, the minimum central pressure was 1009 millibars, and movement was to the west-northwest.

Forecast for 99-L

Invest 99-L has maintained a modest amount of thunderstorm activity throughout the day; and it appears 99-L has become slightly better organized. But, overall, 99-L remains relatively disorganized despite the slight increase in organization.

99-L will move through the Northeastern Caribbean tomorrow and possibly into early Thursday. Significant development of 99-L is not expected during this time due to only marginally favorable environmental conditions; However, some additional slight organization is possible.

Invest 99-L is forecast to track into the Bahamas late Thursday or early Friday. This is concerning, as environmental conditions could – and most likely will be – more conductive for 99-L to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

At this time, the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM all develop invest 99-L in the Bahamas by Saturday or Sunday. In addition, many of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members also develop invest 99-L over the Bahamas this weekend.

However, development is still not guaranteed.

In their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center placed 99-L’s chances of developing at 50% over the next 48 hours and 70% over the next five days.

99l models 7
00Z track guidance for 99-L initialized on 8/23/16 

If invest 99-L does develop [development looks more likely than not at the moment] the general consensus among the models is that a strong ridge of high pressure will force what could potentially be tropical storm”Hermine” into Southern or Central Florida, and possibly into the Gulf of Mexico from there.

However, uncertainty is still high regarding the evolution of invest 99-L over the next five days and beyond. There are many variables at play, and development of 99-L is not guaranteed and therefor details regarding potential track, strength, and impacts are unknown.

If you want an in depth discussion regarding these variables and the potential outcome you should watch this video from Levi Cowan, the owner of Tropical Tidbits.

However, bear in mind the thoughts expressed in Levi’s video and in this article are by no means official.

At this time invest 99-L is still nothing to panic over, although it is worth keeping an eye on is you live in along in Florida,  along the Eastern Gulf Coast, or US East Coast.

We will have another update out tomorrow morning. 

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