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Update on Today’s Severe Weather Threat

Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for today. Image: NOAA SPC

A level 3 (enhanced) risk for severe weather has now been outlined from east-central Texas to far northwest Mississippi for today (see figure 1).

Currently, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) is tracking east across northeast Texas. This MCS is sub-severe, and should weaken as the day progresses. It has produced some small hail and gusty winds though.

Later this morning/early this afternoon, one or more clusters of storms will likely develop across central Texas, generally north of I-10 and east of I-35. Another MCS could as well as  a few supercells could evolve.

Figure 2. HRRR simulated radar loop for 10 AM CDT to 2 AM CDT. Source: College of DuPage NEXLAB

Late this afternoon and evening, this activity will spread northeast, into north/central Louisiana and Mississippi (see figure 2). These storms will have best chance of becoming severe.

The greatest threats have been narrowed down to straight-line winds and hail. However, the tornado threat is not zero.