Home Blog Page 5

Multi-Day Excessive Rain Event to Unfold in Southeast Next Week

Figure 2. Latest 5-day QPF.

A multi-day excessive rain event is likely to unfold across parts of the South this upcoming week. Additionally, there is also some potential for severe storms.

Setup

To simplify things, an active storm track and stalled front will work to enhance moisture across the Southeast over the next week. This will result in widespread rain and storms. For more details on the overall setup see this update from Friday.

Heavy Rain/Flood Threat

We expect he first round of heavy rain Tuesday – Wednesday. The second round will follow Friday going into the weekend.

The axis of heaviest rainfall is still looking to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Appalachians. The latest 5-day QPF outlook from the Weather Prediction Center indicates widespread rain amounts of 5 – 7″ for northern Alabama and Mississippi, far north Georgia, east Tennessee, and far west North Carolina (see figure 1). Some localized amounts of 10 + inches are  forecast.

With saturated soils across much of the south, at least some flooding issues are likely.

Severe Potential

The main story next week will without doubt be the heavy rain/flood threat.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday. (NOAA SPC)

However, there appears to be at least a low-end, isolated severe threat Tuesday into Wednesday.

A marginal risk area has been delineated by the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday; much of north and central Louisiana and west-central Mississippi are included (see figure 2). But it should be noted that the marginal risk area will change prior to Tuesday.

As of now, the primary concern is damaging winds and the possibility of a tornado or two.

Looking toward the weekend, there are signs that we could see a severe threat with the second round rain.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get notified of new blog posts via email by subscribing here.

 

Multiple Waves of Heavy Rain for Parts of the South Next Week

Figure 1. 7-day QPF (Pivotal Weather)

Heavy rain is likely across portions of the South next week.

We briefly touched on the overall the setup for next week in this update from Wednesday. A ridge anchored over the Southeast; deepening trough pivoting into the Rockies; active subtropical jet stream/storm track; and stationary frontal boundary at the surface will work to pump moisture into the Deep South for the duration of next week.

This will allow for multiple waves of thunderstorms and excessive rain starting Tuesday. As things stand right now, it looks like the axis of heaviest rain will be from central Mississippi into northern Alabama and Southern Appalachians (see figure 1).

Flooding issues are going to be a real possibility. We are also continuing to monitor for severe potential. However, currently it appears any severe threat will be rather low.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get notified of new blog posts via email by subscribing here.

El Niño Officially Declared

Sea surface anomalies across the equatorial Pacific for January . (NOAA)

El Niño has officially been declared by the Climate Prediction Center.

According to the ENSO Diagnostics discussion for February, borderline, weak El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Weak El Niño conditions are favored to continue through spring.

What does it mean?

Usually above-average precipitation below-average temperatures  are experienced across the South during an El Niño. However, because this El Niño event is considered weak, significant impacts are not expected for the remainder of winter going into spring.

How long will El Niño last?

It is not clear if El Niño will persist into the summer; chances are “50% or less” per the diagnostics discussion. The reason is that models used to predict ENSO events are typically less accurate prior to spring. Because of this uncertainty, the impact ENSO will have on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is unknown.

If you would like to read the discussion yourself, click here.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get our latest website posts sent to you via email by subscribing here.

Period of Unsettled Weather Likely Next Week

Figure 1. 6 – 10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. (Pivotal Weather)

A trough is predicted to pivot into the Rockies early next week. Meanwhile, the ridge that has been in place across the Southeast is expected to strengthen. This should allow for a more amplified of the subtropical jet stream. It should also result in an active storm track in the South, and Gulf moisture getting funneled north.

Model guidance is already picking up on this. Both the GFS and ECMWF are projecting a low developing over the NW Gulf Tuesday/Wednesday, with a track off to the northeast.

This means that we likely have a period of unsettled weather next week (see figure 1).

Areas from mainly east Texas to the Florida Panhandle will likely have to deal with widespread (and potentially heavy) rain and some thunderstorm activity. Additionally, at least a few strong/severe storms could be possible depending on how instability sets up.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get our latest website posts sent to you via email by subscribing here.

A Tornado Touched Down in MS This Morning

A weak spin-up tornado occurred in Leake County, MS this morning along the Natchez Trace.

The tornado tracked a little over 4 miles. According to the preliminary damage survey, it was and EF- with peak winds estimated to be 90 mph.

No deaths or injuries were reported.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get our latest website posts sent to you via email by subscribing here.

A Strong Storm or Two Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

HRRR simulated radar for 1 AM CST tomorrow morning.

A broken band of rain with some embedded thunderstorms is still expected to form tonight in association with a cold front.

However, there is no longer a threat for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has removed he marginal risk for both today and tomorrow. This is not surprising, as the overall severe threat looked low initially and would been isolated.

Despite this, a few strong storms can’t be ruled out as the band makes its way east overnight and tomorrow. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get our latest website posts sent to you via email by subscribing here.

Cold Front Could Bring a Few Strong to Severe Storms Tomorrow, Tuesday

Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for tomorrow.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible from east Texas to the western Florida Panhandle tomorrow into Tuesday with a cold front.

Tomorrow

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined a marginal risk area from east Texas to north and central Mississippi (see figure 1).

Moisture advection is going to take place ahead of the front. By late afternoon/early evening,  some showers and storms will develop, with a line segment potentially forming during the late evening.

Should the squall line evolve, there could be some wind damage and a brief tornado or two. However, low instability is expected to keep the severe threat isolated.

Tuesday

The SPC has once again highlighted a marginal risk area; southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, south and central Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle are included.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday.

Assuming the squall line comes to fruition, it will sweep east across the central Gulf Coast region during the morning into the early afternoon.

Any embedded strong/severe storms will continue to pose an isolated damaging wind threat. But it looks like the better dynamics will lift off to the north mid/late afternoon. This would cause the overall severe threat to diminish.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get our latest website posts sent to you via email by subscribing here.

Winter Weather Advisories in Effect for Parts of Texas, Louisiana

Figure 1. Advisory map as of 6:30 PM CST 2/8/19. (Pivotal Weather).

A wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow is ongoing across parts of East Texas into Northwest Louisiana. Accordingly, Winter Weather Advisories have been hoisted (see figure 1).

No significant accumulations are expected. However, slick spots are possible tonight – especially on bridges/overpasses; this could make travel hazardous.

Precipitation will continue overnight, but should come to an from east to west late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Temperatures will climb above freezing by late tomorrow morning/early tomorrow afternoon, allowing for any accumulation/icy spots to melt.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get our latest website posts sent to you via email by subscribing here.

Spring-Like Weather Expected Through The Middle of The Month

Figure 1. Latest 6 – 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

Spring-like weather is likely to continue into at least the middle of the month.

Based on the latest the EPS and GEFS runs, above-average heights are favored across much of the Southeast through the 10-day period. Conversely, below-average heights are favored in the West thanks to a persistent trough.

This pattern will feature generally warmer than normal temperatures for much of the South and East through mid-February. Wetter than usual conditions are also probable for parts of the South, as there should be an active storm track out of the Plains.

The latest 6 – 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reflect this (see figure 1); it shows a 70% chance of above average temperatures for the entire Gulf Coast from the 14th – 18th.

However, it should be noted that there will still be a few shots of colder air in between. But don’t expect any arctic blasts like we saw to close out January.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get our latest website posts sent to you via email by subscribing here.

Warming Up Next Week

6 – 10 day CPC temperature outlook. (Pivotal Weather)

We had a major arctic blast to close out January, which brought some snow to the Deep South. However, the first few days of February will be very different.

Next Week: 

Starting early next week, upper-level ridging will build across the eastern two-thirds of the country. This will allow for a surge of warmth, with above-average temperatures likely. By the middle of next week, ridging will likely shift into the Atlantic, allowing a for a shot of cold air.

Beyond Next Week:

Then, looking out to day 10 and beyond, ensemble systems suggest that we will see riding nudge back into the east, which would favor a return to warmer temperatures.


For future updates, be sure to follow us on Instagram.  

You can also follow us on Facebook  and Twitter.


Get our latest website posts sent to you via email by subscribing here.