Despite what some social media posts going around say, it is highly unlikely that a hurricane is going to form in the Gulf or Caribbean in the next 2 weeks.
The GFS, which is just one of several computer models used for predicting tropical cyclogenesis, has shown a hurricane in the Gulf/Caribbean in the long range for a couple of runs. Some social media pages have posted this output without context and it has spread quickly.
An important thing to note is that this is a known bias that the GFS has. It is something that comes up several times each hurricane season – especially early and late in the season. No other models have even hinted at the potential for a hurricane in the Gulf or Caribbean in the next two weeks. This is a red flag and indicates that the GFS solution is more than likely incorrect.
Is it possible the GFS solution showing a hurricane in the Gulf/Caribbean is correct? Yes. Likely? No. Any model solution showing a significant hurricane 10 + days out is almost always unlikely to come to fruition and/or is subject to change. The people that run these pages likely know this, but they choose to hype things up and fear monger for likes and shares. This has implications for meteorologists as well as hobbyists who run their own weather pages/blogs responsibly.
Having said that, it is possible (not likely, but more realistic than a hurricane) we could end up seeing a disturbance, or perhaps a tropical depression or storm, late this month in the Gulf/Caribbean. Something called a Central American Gyre (CAG) is expected to develop. Early and late in the hurricane season a CAG can lead to tropical cyclogenesis; the caveat is that this can occur in either the eastern Pacific or the Caribbean.
As stated above, there is no support from other deterministic models for the GFS solution of a hurricane in the Gulf and Caribbean. However, there is some limited support from the ECMWF ensembles and CMC ensembles for development in the Caribbean in about 7 – 10 days. There is also support from most GFS ensemble members.
So, while it is possible the GFS might be on to something with potential tropical mischief in the Gulf or Caribbean later this month, a hurricane is very, very unlikely.
Ignore the hype. Tropical development is currently not expected in the Atlantic basin for foreseeable future. For now just let this serve as a reminder that hurricane season is less than a month away.
The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing regular tropical outlooks for the Atlantic starting May 15th. If it becomes clear something is going to develop they will highlight it in their tropical weather outlook.
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