There is now a high chance that the first tropical cyclone of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will form in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico late this week. Model guidance is in agreement on a broad, east-weighted…
It is looking increasingly likely that there will be early season tropical development in either the southwest Gulf or northwest Caribbean next week. Model guidance continues to be in agreement on development by mid/late next week. However, some differences remain.…
For the past several model cycles guidance has been generally consistent with the idea of some sort of tropical system developing in either the southwestern Gulf or northwest Caribbean in 7 – 10 days. Unlike the recent GFS ‘modelcane’ there…
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released their outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season this morning. Similar to other outlooks issued, such as the one issued by Colorado State University last month, NOAA is predicting…
The National Hurricane Center has tagged an area of interest in the north central Gulf of Mexico in their 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook. Note that this disturbance is completely unrelated to the spurious hurricane the GFS was showing…
While the GFS ‘modelcane’ is unsurprisingly not going to verify, some tropical moisture is going to make its way north this weekend into next week. High pressure nosing into the southeast from the Atlantic will help advect moisture into the…
Despite what some social media posts going around say, it is highly unlikely that a hurricane is going to form in the Gulf or Caribbean in the next 2 weeks. The GFS, which is just one of several computer models…
There is potential for a few isolated strong to severe storms tonight into tomorrow morning. A marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather is in place. Latest high resolution model guidance has a line of storms moving…
There continues to be a threat for severe weather tomorrow and on Wednesday. The northern half of the area, generally along and north of I-10, has been upgraded to an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather…
Another severe weather event is set to unfold across the Deep South tonight and tomorrow. There is an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather in place for both today and tomorrow. A mesoscale convective system (MCS)…