After an active two weeks with multiple severe weather threats we will finally have a period of quiet weather through early next week.
Surface high pressure will be in control this weekend. Clear skies will prevail. High temperatures will be in the 70s both today and tomorrow with low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s Sunday morning.
By Monday/Tuesday, a 500 mb ridge will build across the area. This will allow for tranquil weather to persist. However, at the surface winds will become more southerly/southeasterly Tuesday as surface high pressure shifts east causing moisture to advect into the area. An increase in clouds, specifically mid to upper-level clouds, can also be expected.
Temperatures will trend upward by Monday and Tuesday with maximum temperatures in the upper mid/upper 70s to low 80s. Lows will be in the 60s across the entire area by Monday night/Tuesday morning.
As we go into Tuesday night/Wednesday the 500 mb ridge will move off to the east as an upper-level trough/low moves into the Plains. This upper-level trough/low will eventually lift into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Thursday.
Meanwhile, a midlatitude cyclone is expected to form in the Rockies/Plains and intensify as it tracks into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday. This will bring a cold front toward the area Wednesday night/Thursday.
Unfortunately, thunderstorms and heavy rain appear likely during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe with models indicating the potential for strong/severe storms. At this juncture it seems that a line of storms will move through Wednesday night.
The Storm Prediction Center has not included the area in a risk area at this time. However, a 15% and 30% risk area have been defined just to our west, for parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, Wednesday.
For future updates be sure to follow us on Twitter @pcolawx and on Facebook. You can also subscribe to our newsletter:
