There continues to be a threat for severe weather tomorrow and on Wednesday.
The northern half of the area, generally along and north of I-10, has been upgraded to an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather tomorrow. The remainder of the area is still in a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather.
An enhanced risk means that numerous severe storms are possible. A slight risk means scattered severe storms are possible. For more info on SPC categorical risk categories see this graphic.
A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is expected to develop in northern Texas tonight. It is then going to track east/east-southeast, likely reaching our area sometime late tomorrow morning/early tomorrow afternoon.
However, there is a bit of uncertainty with the southern extent of the MCS tomorrow morning/afternoon. Some high resolution model guidance, namely the HRRR, brings the MCS down into the central Gulf Coast and through our area.
Other high resolution model guidance, such as the NAM 3-km, keeps the MCS mostly to the north in Alabama with the southern portion skirting northern Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties and other areas seeing little to no convective activity. This will be something to watch.
This will be something to watch and essentially means we are looking at two scenarios: a strong line of storms moving through the area or the bulk of the activity remaining north of I-10. Right now it seems the SPC is leaning more toward the other models and away from the HRRR as the enhanced risk area lines up better with them.
Nonetheless, it doesn’t mean anyone should be any less prepared.
All severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail) will be possible tomorrow with damaging winds, possibly up to 70 mph, being the primary concern. Tornadoes will be possible within the MCS as well as any discrete storms that mange to develop.
Heavy rain is also likely which could lead to potential for localized flash flooding. Rainfall amounts should range from 1 – 3 inches across the area with locally higher totals in excess of 4 inches possible.
The most likely timeframe for severe weather tomorrow will be from roughly 10 AM through 4 PM.
Strong/severe storms will also be possible again on Wednesday in association with a cold front.
The SPC has the entire area in a slight risk for severe weather. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main threats with any severe storms that develop.
For future updates be sure to follow us on Twitter @pcolawx and on Facebook. You can also subscribe to our newsletter:
