Tropical Storm Ian has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph this morning. Confidence remains rather low with respect to Ian’s track once past Cuba. The GFS and ECMWF, as well as their ensembles, continue to be very different. The GEFS…
Invest 98L has developed into a tropical depression (Tropical Depression Nine). The initial forecast for TD9 has a category 2 hurricane near Cuba early next week. At this point a landfall in central or south Florida Tuesday/Wednesday is looking increasingly…
Invest 98L has moved into the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Development chances remain high at 70 percent through the next 2 days and 90 percent through the next 5 days. At this point we are reasonably confident that Invest 98L will…
After a lull in activity the tropics are waking up. Hurricane Fiona, which is the season’s first major hurricane, is continuing to intensify as it begins to move away from the Turks and Caicos this evening. Maximum sustained have increased…
Tropical Storm Danielle, the 4th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the North Atlantic about 960 miles west of the Azores yesterday morning and has since intensified into a hurricane. As of the 9 PM GMT…
A broad area of low pressure has developed along the tropical wave we have been monitoring in the eastern Atlantic. It has been designated Invest 91L. Invest 91L will track generally west to west-northwest over at least the next 5…
It appears that the tropics are becoming more active as expected. There are now two different areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin: a trough of low pressure in the eastern Caribbean and a tropical wave just off of the…
While Invest 99L, which was upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Friday, failed to develop into a tropical cyclone before moving onshore in northeast Mexico yesterday, there are indications that the tropics will continue to become more active. This of…
An area of low pressure (Invest 99L) emerged in the Bay of Campeche this morning and is showing signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring Invest 99L for tropical development for the past few days over the…
Tropical development is possible in the northern Gulf later this week in association with a stalled/decaying cold front. The front was positioned from Texas east into North Carlina as of the 0900z surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center. It…