Active weather is going to return to parts of the Gulf Coast early next week.
Formation of a surface low in the Southern Plains is likely Sunday night. Current thinking is then for a strong surface high building into the Midwest to shunt the low into the Southeast Monday into Tuesday (see figure 1).
Models are not handling this system well, though. The GFS is weaker and faster. Meanwhile, the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC are showing a stronger but slower system.
As the low tracks across the Southeast, a severe threat could evolve either late Monday or Tuesday. Because of the aforementioned model differences, uncertainty exists regarding magnitude, placement, et cetera.
The Storm Prediction Center has mentioned this potential but have to define a risk area due to the model differences.
However, the latest CIPS analog-based severe probability guidance highlights it well (see figure 2).
Regardless of any severe weather threat, widespread precipitation is expected – mainly for Louisiana and points east. However, rain amounts look to be low (~ 0.25 – 2″).
