Tropical Update: June 9th, 2017

All remains calm across the Atlantic, with no tropical development expected over the next 5 – 7 days.

However, looking beyond the next 5 – 7 days, it still looks like there will be some potential for tropical development in the Northwest Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico 7 – 10 days from now.

Pretty much all of the reliable global model guidance, including the GFS and ECMWF and their ensemble members, are hinting at some activity around the Yucatan Peninsula next weekend into early next week.

And as we stated yesterday – the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is expected to be in a favorable state for tropical development in the Atlantic towards the middle and end of this month – which could increase development chances.

This potential is still nothing to be too concerned about, but it is something to monitor.

We will have another update out tomorrow.

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Tropical Update: June 8th, 2017

All is quiet across the Atlantic Basin, and it is expected to remain that way for the foreseeable future. The system we were monitoring for potential development this past weekend never developed due to unfavorable upper level winds.

In the long-range,  7 – 10 days from now, there looks like there could be some potential for tropical development in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Some of the more reliable model guidance is picking up on this potential for the past week or s. Additionally, the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is expected to be in a favorable state for tropical development in the Atlantic during this time, so it is worth monitoring.

At this time it is nothing to be concerned about; development might not even occur, but the potential is there.

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Still Potential for Tropical Development in the Southwest Gulf

The National Hurricane Center has acknowledged the potential for the remnants of Tropical Storm Beatriz to regenerate in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days; a potential that we have been monitoring for the past couple of days.

Presently, the remnants of Beatriz have a decent amount of vorticity, and a modest amount of thunderstorm activity. However, wind shear remains unfavorable, and will likely impede any significant organization.

In their 2pm EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center placed the chance of regeneration at 0% through the next 5 days.

Regardless, heavy periods of rainfall are likely from Louisiana to Florida now through mid-week, as the remnants of Beatriz get swept across the Gulf and Florida by a trough.

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Tropical Development in the Western Gulf This Weekend?

There appears to be some potential for tropical development in the Western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Tropical Depression Two-E

Tropical depression two formed in the Eastern Pacific today, along the West Coast of Mexico. It is expected to make landfall tomorrow as a tropical storm.

Development in the Western Gulf of Mexico?

Then, there are some indications that some energy from TD-2 will crossover into the Southwestern Gulf this weekend and interact with some other features, resulting in the formation of an area of low pressure.

GFS MSLP anomaly forecast valid 12z Saturday.

Some of the more reliable model guidance, such as the ECMWF and GFS, then forecast this low to develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.

However, the overall potential for tropical development seems low at this time, as wind shear is still high across most of the Gulf of Mexico. And if something does manage to develop, it would be weak and sheared.

Heavy Rainfall for Most of the Gulf Coast

Forecast rainfall accumulations through next Thursday.

Regardless of tropical development, a surge of deep tropical moisture from the low will result in a period of heavy rainfall from the Florida Peninsula to Texas through at least early to mid-week next week.

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Unsettled Weather Through Mid-week Next Week

Heavy rainfall is likely across much the region now through Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of a cool front; along with some strong to severe storms.

Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall is going to be the primary concern now through Wednesday, with several rounds of rain/storms likely across Southern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South/Central Alabama, and much of the Florida Panhandle.

Widespread rainfall accumulations between 2 – 5 inches are expected, with higher accumulations likely in Southwest Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle.

Flash flooding will also be somewhat of a concern.

Strong Storms

Convective outlook for this evening and tonight.

Through tonight: Some strong to severe storms will be possible across Southern Texas, and most of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle this evening and overnight.

Convective outlook for tomorrow.

Through tomorrow: Another round of storms strong to severe storms will also be possible across many of the same areas tomorrow, and across much of Southern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme Western Florida Panhandle on Monday.

Severe Threat

Placement: The overall severe weather threat through Monday is relatively low, with the greatest potential for severe storms being in the category 2 (“slight”) risk areas.

Threats: While a brief, isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out, the primary threats will be hail and damaging winds.

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Threat for Severe Weather, Flooding Tomorrow, Thursday

The threat for severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding will return to much of the region tomorrow and Thursday, ahead of a strong cold front.

Severe Threat Tomorrow

The severe weather threat tomorrow will span across East Texas, all of Louisiana, much of Mississippi and Southwest Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle.

Placement: The greatest risk for severe weather tomorrow will be in the category 3 (“enhanced”) and category 2 (“slight”) risk areas.

Convective outlook for tomorrow.

However, severe weather will also be a possibility in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.

Timing: Multiple clusters of storms will initially develop across South/Central Texas and Southwest tomorrow morning, along and south of a warm front; some of which will become severe.

NAM simualted radar valid at 5pm CDT tomorrow.

Then tomorrow afternoon, a squall line will develop across East Texas and West Louisiana along/ahead of the cold front; and push across the remainder of Louisiana and much of Central/South Mississippi during the evening hours and overnight, and into Southwest Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle early Thursday morning.

Threats: Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be the primary threats with the first round of storms tomorrow morning; with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes becoming the main concern with the squall line tomorrow evening and overnight.

Heavy Rainfall Tomorrow

The threat for excessive rainfall and flooding tomorrow will be centered across East Texas, most of Louisiana, and Southern Mississippi (and Southwest Alabama and extreme Western Florida Panhandle into early Thursday morning).

Flood outlook for tomorrow from the Weather Prediction Center.

Overall, rainfall accumulations of 2 – 4″ with locally higher accumulations are expected.

Severe Threat Thursday

The severe weather threat will continue across the Western Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning, and will also shift into the Central/Eastern Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama, and North/Central Florida on Thursday.

Placement: The greatest risk for severe weather Thursday will be in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.

Convective outlook for tomorrow.

Timing: The squall line will continue east, pushing across the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama Thursday morning, and across North/Central Florida Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

Heavy Rainfall Thursday

The threat for heavy rainfall and flooding will diminish somewhat by Thursday, with the greatest flood threat remaining across the Western Florida Panhandle, where heavier rainfall is anticipated to continue through late Thursday morning.

Forecast rainfall through late Thursday/early Friday.

Overall, rainfall accumulations between 2 – 4″  are also expected Thursday, with locally higher accumulations possible.

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Update | Severe Weather Threat Tonight, Tomorrow

Severe storms have fired up across parts of East Texas and West Louisiana, with more expected tonight into tomorrow as the threat for severe weather pushes east.

Tornadoes in Texas 

Storms have already spawned multiple tornadoes earlier this evening, with one causing significant damage in a city just east of Dallas, Texas

For more information read this article from The Weather Channel.

Severe Threat Tonight

The threat for severe weather will persist, and expand, into the overnight hours tonight.

Latest Watches: A tornado watch (in effect until 10pm CDT), as well as a severe thunder storm watch (in effect until 11pm CDT), are in effect for parts of East Texas.

For more details on these watches go to the Storm Prediction Center’s website.

Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather tonight will continue to be across East Texas and West Louisiana, in the category 3 (“enhanced”) risk area.

Convective outlook for now through the overnight hours.

However, there also be a threat for severe weather in the category 2 (“slight”) risk and category 1 (“marginal”) risk areas.

Timing: Additional storms are expected to develop across East Texas and West Louisiana within the next 1 – 3 hours, eventually merging into a squall line shortly after midnight, which will push across Louisiana and into extreme Western Mississippi during the early morning hours.

HRRR simulated radar valid at 2am CDT tonight.

Threats: All modes of severe weather (damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail will be threats.

Severe Threat Tomorrow

The severe weather threat will continue tomorrow, across Eastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Placement:  The highest threat for severe weather will be across East Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and West Alabama, in the category 2 (“slight”) risk area.

Convective outlook for tomorrow.

However, there will also be a lower risk for sever weather in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.

Timing: Storms will push across Western portions of the threat area during the morning and afternoon hours, and during the evening and overnight hours for Eastern portions of the threat area (possibly into Monday morning for the Florida Panhandle and East Alabama).

Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible, with damaging winds being the primary threat.

Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall remains likely. However, nothing has really changed regarding our thinking on the heavy rainfall situation. For details on it see our previous update.

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Severe Weather, Heavy Rainfall Remains Likely This Weekend

A storm system is still expected to bring severe weather and heavy rainfall to much of the region this weekend.

Setup

A strong low pressure system will sweep across the Plains and Midwest tomorrow through Monday, bringing a trailing cold front across our region as it does so.

Storms will develop along and ahead of the front as it makes its way east, which will produce heavy rainfall, and likely some severe weather.

Severe Threat

Tomorrow

Severe weather will be likely across much of East Texas, West Louisiana, and West Mississippi.

Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather will be across parts of East Texas and West Louisiana, in the category 3 (“enhanced”) risk area.

Convective outlook for tomorrow.

However, severe weather will also be possible in the category 2 (“slight”) risk and category 1 (“marginal”) risk areas.

Timing: Storms will initiate across East Texas and West Louisiana during the afternoon hours, and push east into the evening and overnight hours.

Threats: All modes of severe weather (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes) will be threats.

Sunday

The severe weather threat will push into East Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Placement: The highest risk for severe weather will be across East Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and West Alabama, in the category 2 (“slight”) risk area.

Convective outlook for Sunday.

However, there will also be a lower risk for sever weather in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.

Timing: As of now, the time frame for storms appears to be the morning and afternoon hours across Western portions of the threat area, and the evening into overnight hours for Eastern portions of the threat area (possibly into Monday morning for the Florida Panhandle and East Alabama).

Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible.

Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall will be likely this weekend in addition to the severe weather threat.

The highest accumulations are currently forecast over Northeast Texas, Northern Louisiana, and Northwest Mississippi, where accumulations of 1 – 3″ are forecast (locally higher accumulations will be possible).

Forecast rainfall accumulations through Monday/early Tuesday.

Flooding will be a concern in flood prone areas, as well as areas that receive heavy rainfall accumulations in a short period of time.

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Severe Weather, Heavy Rainfall Likely This Weekend

A storm system is going to bring severe weather and heavy rainfall to much of the region this weekend.

Setup

A strong low pressure system is going to sweep across the Plains and Midwest from Saturday through Sunday.

It will bring a trailing cold front across our region as it does so, which storms will develop along and ahead of as it makes its way east; and the parameters will be in place to support some of them becoming severe.

Additionally, the storms that form along and ahead of the front will also produce heavy rainfall.

Severe Threat

Saturday

Severe weather will be likely across much of East Texas, West Louisiana, and West Mississippi.

Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather will be in the category 3 (“enhanced”) and category 2 (“slight”) risk areas.

Convective outlook for Saturday.

However, severe weather will also be possible in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.

Timing: It i still too early to give many details regarding the timing. However, at this time it looks like storms will initiate across East Texas during the afternoon hours, and push east into the evening and overnight hours.

Threats: All modes of severe weather (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes) will be threats.

Sunday

The severe weather threat will push into East Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Placement: The Storm Prediction Center has hatched the equivalent of a category 2 (“slight”) risk for severe weather across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama for Sunday.

Severe threat area for Sunday.

However, the threat area will likely be subject to change over the course of tomorrow and Saturday.

Timing: It is too early for details regarding timing.

Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible.

Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall will also be likely this weekend in addition to the severe weather threat.

Forecast rainfall through late Sunday/early Monday.

The highest accumulations are currently forecast over Northeast Texas, Northern Louisiana, and Northwest Mississippi, where accumulations of 1 – 3″ are forecast (locally higher accumulations will be possible).

Flooding will be a concern in flood prone areas, as well as areas that receive heavy rainfall accumulations in a short period of time.

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Risk for Severe Weather Today, Tomorrow

There is a risk for severe weather across parts of the region today, and tomorrow.

Today

There is a risk for severe weather across East Texas, much of Louisiana and Mississippi, and Western Alabama today.

Convective outlook for today.

Placement: The greatest risk for severe weather will be in the category 4 (“moderate”) risk and category 3 (“enhanced”) risk areas. However, there will also be a threat for severe weather in the category 2 (“slight”) and category 1 (“marginal”) risk areas.

Timing: Storm will develop across East Texas this afternoon, and push east across the threat area into this evening and overnight.

HRRR simulated radar valid at 6pm CDT this evening.

Threats: All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail) will be possible today.

Tomorrow

The risk for severe will push east tomorrow, into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Convective outlook for tomorrow.

Placement: The greatest risk for severe weather Thursday will be in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.

Timing: Storms will push across the threat area tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours.

Threats: The main threat will be damaging winds. However, a brief isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.

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