The chance of Invest 91L developing is decreasing. Analysis Convection once again developed and increased in coverage overnight after waning yesterday afternoon However, there is still no evidence of a well-defined center of circulation. Model guidance None of the model…
Invest 91L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Analysis Looking at satellite imagery, convective (shower and thunderstorm) activity has increased this morning. However, it has been waning in intensity and coverage with the diurnal cycle for the past several…
Invest 91L is gradually organizing in the Bay of Campeche. Analysis Convective activity remains disorganized. However, vorticity has increased, with broad cyclonic turning evident. Wind shear also remains low in the vicinity of 91L per the most recent wind shear…
The broad area of low pressure over that was over the Yucatan Peninsula yesterday is now over the Bay of Campeche, and has been tagged Invest 91L. Analysis Wind shear remains very conducive for development, with values only in the…
It is looking like we could see some tropical “mischief” in the southwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Model guidance Since yesterday, the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS have all been hinting at tropical development in the Bay of Campeche between…
While investigating Invest 90L this afternoon, a USAF reconnaissance aircraft found a well-defined low-level center of circulation and winds of 40 mph, prompting an upgrade to Subtropical Storm Andrea. As of the 5:30 PM special advisory package, Andrea was located…
An area of disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas, which is associated with a surface trough, has been designated invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. Analysis 40 kts of westerly wind shear is hindering development at this time.…
An expansive, anomalous upper-level ridge is going to build across the Southeast starting Wednesday. The result will be the first heat wave of the year, or what some have designated a “dome” of heat, for the Southeast just in time…
There is a chance for some tropical and/or subtropical development just south of Bermuda early next week. Special TWO issued for the Atlantic… 30% chance for tropical/subtropical development over the next 5 days. pic.twitter.com/727XgRMxTw — Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX)…
There is a threat for severe weather for central/east Texas and the western half of Louisiana this weekend. Placement The Storm Prediction Center has defined a level 3 out of 5 (enhanced) risk area for parts of central and northeast…