Spring-like weather is likely to continue into at least the middle of the month. Based on the latest the EPS and GEFS runs, above-average heights are favored across much of the Southeast through the 10-day period. Conversely, below-average heights are…
Confidence in a transition to a more sustained, cold and stormy regime around and after the 20th (next weekend, roughly) has increased. Both the EPS and GEFS have locked onto the idea of ridging (high pressure) developing along the West…
Teleconnections are going to favor generally above normal to normal temperatures across much of the lower 48 for the next 1 – 2 weeks. A few shot of cold air or two is certainly possible, though. However, as we head…
Another unusually strong upper-level trough (for this time of year) is going to carve itself out over the Central and East U.S. mid to late week next week — something that has been common place this summer (see figure 1).…
Another change to the upper-level pattern change is on the way. Mid to late week next week, a cut-off low is likely going to develop over the Southern Plains. This should lead to increased/above average precipitation — particularly for Texas…
El Niño is likely to develop sometime this fall or winter, with the latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) placeing the chance of El Niño developing by winter of 2018/19 at 70%. But what exactly does that mean…
Two surges of unseasonably warmth are on the way. The first will surge arrive tomorrow and last through Friday. The second will arrive next week, and it will be longer in duration, likely lasting through the end of the month.…
A pattern change is coming next week. Model guidance has remained consistent, forecasting the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation to simultaneously be in their negative phases next week, and the Pacific North American Pattern to go positive. What it…
For the past month or two an expansive and persistent ridge of high pressure has been in place across much of the Gulf Coast Region (along with most of the country). Drought: This ridge has caused below average rainfall and…
Good morning everyone, a vigorous tropical wave has emerged off of the western coast of Africa and is now moving into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Two things have occurred in relation this wave over the past couple of hours. It…