Good morning everyone, a vigorous tropical wave has emerged off of the western coast of Africa and is now moving into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Two things have occurred in relation this wave over the past couple of hours.
- It has been designated as Invest 96L ( a designation which allows tropical models to begin running on the system)
- The system is now given a probability of developing by the National Hurricane Center. As of the writing of this update, this system is given a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next 2 days and a 20% chance of doing so in the next 5 days.
As you can see, this is an immense wave. The wave is pushing off to the west at 15 to 20 MPH. The main inhibitor for this wave is dry air due to dust moving westward from the African Continent and the fast forward motion that the wave is moving at. However, wind shear values are generally low ahead of the wave and sea surface temperatures are generally conductive for development.
The initial intensity guidance generally shows this wave becoming a tropical storm in the medium range but I will caution that these initial models are likely being a tad bit aggressive with this wave and any major development would likely occur beyond 3 days from now.
The initial track guidance shows the wave generally continuing onto the west, these models tend to be fairly inaccurate but are the only ones we have —- for now.
The basic conclusion you can get out of this is that a tropical wave is being monitored for development in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, it is several days from impacting any landmasses and thus we will simply continue to monitor the wave from afar. Stay tuned for updates from Gulf Coast Weather Center on this tropical wave and the potential for any development and impacts down the road!