Transition to a More Sustained Cold, Stormy Pattern Likely Toward the End of the Month

Confidence in a transition to a more sustained, cold and stormy regime around and after the 20th (next weekend, roughly) has increased. Both the EPS and GEFS have locked onto the idea of ridging (high pressure) developing along the West Coast, blocking forming near Greenland, with overall lower heights evolving …

Another Trough Next Week; Cooler Than Average Temperatures Likely

Another unusually strong upper-level trough (for this time of year) is going to carve itself out over the Central and East U.S. mid to late week next week — something that has been common place this summer (see figure 1). The result of this trough digging in is going to …

Pattern Change Coming Next Week

A pattern change is coming next week. Model guidance has remained consistent, forecasting the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation to simultaneously be in their negative phases next week, and the Pacific North American Pattern to go positive. What it means: The change of the aforementioned teleconnections means;  a change …