Below-Average Temperatures Favored Through Mid-Month

Figure 1. Latest 6 - 10 day temperature outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. It reflects a high probability for below-average temperatures across much of the Central and Eastern U.S. during the November 10 - 14 period.
Figure 1. Latest 6 – 10 day temperature outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. It reflects a high probability for below-average temperatures across much of the Central and Eastern U.S. during the November 10 – 14 period.

Good news if you like cold weather: below-average temperatures are favored through at least the middle of the month across the eastern two-thirds the country (see figure 1).

The next cold front will likely sweep through Thursday/Friday; it will bring the coldest air of the season thus far.

However, it is looking increasingly possible the strength of the shot of cold air expected toward the end of this week could be quickly eclipsed.

Figure 2. GEFS predicted temperature anomalies (Celsius) for next Tuesday. Image: Tropical Tidbits

The GFS ensembles (GEFS) and ECMWF ensembles (EPS) are in agreement on significant blast of arctic air early to mid next week, predicting temperatures to drop as much as 10 to 12 degrees (C) below normal (see figure 2).

Should the output from the GEFS and EPS verify, it is possible the freezing line would  advance as far south as the I-10 corridor.

This is still quite a ways out in time though, and therefore not yet a certainty.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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