Temperature Roller Coaster: Warming up; Cold Returns by Mid-Month

A warm up is in store for parts of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. This comes after a very cold start to March.

The current pattern across the continental U.S. is currently being driven by a negative phase of the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). With a – EPO, below-average temperatures typically occur across much of the lower 48.

However, the GEFS and EPS are forecasting a flip to a + EPO this weekend/early next week. With a +  EPO you can expect the exact opposite of a – EPO (above-average temperatures).

With both the GEFS and EPS in agreement, a pattern flip is likely heading into next week. This means the Central and Eastern parts of the country should experience a period of warmer weather/above-average temperatures.

We note that temperatures will start to moderate west of the Appalachians by today. But this will be the result of a storm system rather than the EPO.

More Cold?

It seems like we are on somewhat of a roller coaster with respect to temperatures. Granted, we are now in meteorological spring — and soon to be in astronomical spring — so temperature swings should be expected.

Longer-range model guidance does indicate that below-average temperatures will return right around mid-month.

This seems to be because of a combination of the EPO going back into negative territory and the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) trending positive.

However, it likely won’t be as severe as what we had to being the month.


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