Tropical development in the western Caribbean is looking more likely this weekend going into next week. Analysis: A broad area of low pressure has now formed in the SW Caribbean. The associated convective activity is sporadic and disorganized. Shear has…
Tropical development in the west Caribbean late this week going into next week remains a possibility. Analysis: A broad area of disturbed weather has already formed over the extreme SW Caribbean. However, shear is currently high across much of the Caribbean…
We mentioned back on the 17th that conditions in the Caribbean/Gulf would favor an increase in tropical activity. Long-range model guidance is now picking up on this. The ECMWF (euro), GFS, and UKMET are all in agreement on a broad…
The remnants of Kirk were able to develop a closed center overnight per another ASCAT pass — meaning we now have Tropical Storm Kirk (again). At the 5 AM EDT/AST advisory, Kirk was moving west at 18 mph with 40…
Kirk officially degenerated yesterday morning at the 11 AM EDT/AST advisory. This is because an ASCAT pass revealed that there was no closed center. It appears that fast forward speed and dry air were the cause of dissipation. While…
Those of us who were ready for some fall-like weather this week are going to have to wait. Model guidance has backed off significantly on the idea of a Central/Eastern U.S. trough mid/late week. It looks like a Southeast ridge…
The Atlantic is still very busy in terms of tropical activity. We are monitoring four active systems: Tropical Storm Kirk, the remnants of Tropical Depression 11 (TD 11), Invest 98L, and Invest 90L. We are going to focus on Kirk,…
Invest 99L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Kirk (TS Kirk), skipping tropical depression status all together. Per the 11 AM EDT/AST advisory, Kirk was moving west at 14 mph with max sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum…
Tropical Depression Eleven (TD 11) developed east of the Windward Islands and Lesser Antilles last night, but is not much of a threat. Meanwhile, Invest 99L is on the way to becoming Tropical Depression Twelve south of the Cabo Verde…
Invest 97L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Eleven (TD 11). As of the 11 PM AST/EDT advisory, max sustained winds were 35 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars. Movement was to the west-northwest at 6 mph.…