The National Hurricane Center is watching the western Caribbean for possible tropical development. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southwest Caribbean by Wednesday or Thursday and could slowly develop as it lifts northwest.
Model support is rather limited at this time. Only the deterministic run of the GFS has been showing development. And as usual the GFS is developing a significant hurricane due convective feedback issues. However, there is some limited support for development from the ECMWF ensembles (EPS).
Right now the chances of development are low (20 percent over the next 5 days). A strong upper-level ridge is expected to be in place over the eastern U.S./Southeast mid and late this week with an expansive upper-level ridge likely to develop over the central and eastern U.S. by this weekend. This should keep any possible TC in the Caribbean from moving too far poleward.
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