The tropics are starting to get a bit more active. A tropical wave in the far eastern tropical Atlantic, just off of the African coast, is being monitored for development early next week as it tracks west.
Conditions appear somewhat favorable for development in the eastern tropical Atlantic considering it is late June. Wind shear is currently below average across the Main Development Region (MDR) and sea surface temperatures are above average. Models also indicate that the wave will have a good moisture envelope to work with.
Looking at the latest model guidance, the deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all develop this wave around Sunday/Monday once it reaches 45 to 50 degrees west longitude. There is also ample support for development from the GFS and ECMWF ensembles (GEFS and EPS) as of their 12z runs.
The National Hurricane Center gave the wave a 20 percent chance of development over the next 5 days in their 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook.
If a tropical cyclone does form it is too early to speculate too much on potential track and intensity. This is because there is not yet a developed tropical cyclone and the wave is still in the far eastern Atlantic.
However, it is likely the wave will move through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean early to mid next week – possibly as a tropical depression or storm.
From a climatological perspective it would be unusual, but not unprecedented, for a tropical cyclone to develop in the far eastern Atlantic in late June. Hurricane Elsa developed on June 30, 2021. Another recent example is Tropical Storm Bret which formed on June 19, 2017.
The next name on the list is Bonnie.
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