The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released their outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season this morning. Similar to other outlooks issued, such as the one issued by Colorado State University last month, NOAA is predicting above average activity.
According to the outlook, “an above-normal season is most likely (65% chance), with the possibility of it being extremely (aka hyper-) active.” There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is predicting 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. The 1991 – 2020 average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
One of the primary reasons an above average hurricane season is expected is the likely persistence of La Niña in the equatorial Pacific. La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and it tends to reduce vertical wind shear across the Atlantic. El Niño, the warm ENSO phase, does the opposite.
According to a press release, additional factors that point to another above average hurricane season are “warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.”
If the outlook verifies it would be the seventh consecutive Atlantic hurricane season with above average activity which is unprecedented.
While the prospect of another above-normal hurricane season is concerning, it is important to note that seasonal hurricane outlooks are only useful for gauging how active a hurricane season might be in terms of total named storms. They don’t predict where systems will make landfall or if a majority will remain out to sea. For that reason it is important to be prepared every hurricane season.
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