NOAA issued their updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. According to a press release issued this morning, forecasters have “increased the chances of above-normal activity” to 45 percent, up from 30 percent in the May outlook. The likelihood…
Development of Invest 96L is now looking less likely. Analysis Invest 96L is disorganized. This is evidenced by the lack of any deep convective activity — which can be attributed to a very dry, stable saharan air layer — and…
The tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic is now Invest 96L. Model guidance Model guidance is still in agreement on a tropical depression forming east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday. Ensemble support also remains somewhat strong. However, as…
Tropical cyclone formation is becoming increasingly likely this weekend east of the Lesser Antilles. The “seed” is a tropical wave currently located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Immediate development not expected A dry saharan air layer (SAL),…
Invest 95L is passing across the Greater Antilles this evening. All-in-all, development is now looking unlikely. Both wind shear and land interaction is inhibiting development, as expected. Model support has also decreased markedly. With that being said, Invest 95l can’t…
The tropical wave that passed through the Lesser Antilles yesterday is now Invest 95L. Analysis Due to a persistent ribbon of strong wind shear, Invest 95L is disorganized, with little in the way of convection or vorticity (spin). Immediate development…
The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring the tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles. “A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward…
The tropics are beginning to shows signs of “waking up” in the Atlantic. While there are is not a threat for immediate development, there are two tropical waves worth monitoring this week (see figure 1). The first wave is currently…
As predicted, an area of low pressure has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. However, due to high wind shear and dry air, tropical or subtropical development now appears highly unlikely. Both the GFS and UKMET, which were predicting development of…
Tropical development is still possible in the northern Gulf. An area of low pressure is expected to form along a stalled front tonight. Over the course of tomorrow and Friday, this area of low pressure could acquire some tropical or…