Tropical Storm Dorian is stronger than it was this time yesterday.
2 PM AST advisory info
As of the 2 PM AST, Dorian had winds of 60 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars. Movement was to the west-northwest at 14 mph.
Analysis
There has been some improvement in organization. Some outflow is now established – something that had been essentially non-existent. However, dry is still keeping strength in check.
Track
Model guidance is in excellent agreement on Dorian continuing west-northwest through tomorrow, followed by a turn to the northwest Wednesday (see figure 2).
Dorian is forecast to track near Puerto Rico late Wednesday/early Thursday, and near/over Hispaniola Thursday. By Friday, Dorian will reach the Bahamas.
Intensity
Current thinking is that steady intensification will continue over the next 48 hours, and that Dorian should become a hurricane tomorrow.
Intensity becomes a big question beyond Thursday, though. This is because of possible interaction with Hispaniola.
If Dorian tracks directly over Hispaniola (as is currently forecast), significant weakening is probable, with restrengthening in the Bahamas. Conversely, if Dorian goes north of Hispaniola, we could be looking at a bonafide tropical cyclone (TC) moving into the Bahamas.
Another possible outcome is that Dorian opens up back into a wave after passing over Hispaniola (should it do so), with possible regeneration in the Bahamas.
NOTE: It is too early to say what impact, if any, Dorian will have on Florida or the Southeast U.S.
