NOAA issued their updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
According to a press release issued this morning, forecasters have “increased the chances of above-normal activity” to 45 percent, up from 30 percent in the May outlook.
The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35 percent, while the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20 percent.
Overall, 10 – 17 named storms, 5 – 9 hurricanes and 2 – 4 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater) are expected.
One factor that prompted forecasters to increase the odds of above-normal activity is the demise of El Niño.
This morning, the Climate Prediction Center announced El Niño had transitioned back to ENSO neutral conditions in the east Pacific.
“El Nino [sic] typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it’s gone, we could see a busier season ahead.”
– Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
This spring, it was thought that weak El Niño would persist through Northern Hemisphere summer and into Northern Hemisphere fall, and ultimately suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.
