Dorian has not changed much in the way of organization or strength overnight or this morning.
2 PM AST advisory info
As of the 2 PM AST advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), maximum sustained winds were still estimated to be 40 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1008 millibars. Movement was to the west at 14 mph.
Analysis
Satellite imagery suggests that dry air, and possibly some southeasterly shear, is responsible for keeping Dorian in check. However, a central dense overcast does appear to be developing this afternoon (see figure 1), suggesting Dorian might be attempting to intensify.
Track forecast
Dorian will pass through the Lesser Antilles late Monday/early Tuesday, before entering the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Late next week, Dorian is forecast to pass near/over Hispaniola.
Intensity forecast
There is still not a whole lot of confidence in the intensity forecast because of Dorian’s small size and the presence of dry air.
The NHC continues to forecast Dorian to become a category 1 hurricane.
However, most of the model guidance is predicting Dorian to remain a tropical storm, or even dissipate, in the east Caribbean.
Long-term outlook
What happens with Dorian late this week is highly uncertain.
The NHC noted this uncertainty in their most forecast discussion for Dorian, saying:
“However, the large range of possibilities includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over Hispaniola.”
