Tropical cyclone formation is becoming increasingly likely this weekend east of the Lesser Antilles. The “seed” is a tropical wave currently located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Immediate development not expected A dry saharan air layer (SAL),…

Invest 95L is passing across the Greater Antilles this evening. All-in-all, development is now looking unlikely. Both wind shear and land interaction is inhibiting development, as expected. Model support has also decreased markedly. With that being said, Invest 95l can’t…

The tropical wave that passed through the Lesser Antilles yesterday is now Invest 95L. Analysis Due to a persistent ribbon of strong wind shear, Invest 95L is disorganized, with little in the way of convection or vorticity (spin). Immediate development…

The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring the tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles. “A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward…

The tropics are beginning to shows signs of “waking up” in the Atlantic. While there are is not a threat for immediate development, there are two tropical waves worth monitoring this week (see figure 1). The first wave is currently…

As predicted, an area of low pressure has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. However, due to high wind shear and dry air, tropical or subtropical development now appears highly unlikely. Both the GFS and UKMET, which were predicting development of…

Tropical development is still possible in the northern Gulf. An area of low pressure is expected to form along a stalled front tonight. Over the course of tomorrow and Friday, this area of low pressure could acquire some tropical or…

Tropical Depression Three (TD-3) is no more. The  11 AM EDT advisory National Hurricane Center was the last. A USAF reconnaissance aircraft that investigating this morning was unable to find a well-defined low-level center. The rapid demise of TD-3 should…

A cold front is going to drop down into the Gulf tomorrow, slow and meander into the weekend. It is possible that a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along it late tomorrow or Thursday. Should a low form,…