Advisories were initiated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) this morning on Tropical Depression Five.
This afternoon, Tropical Depression Five reached tropical storm intensity, acquiring the name Dorian.
As of 5 PM CDT, Dorian had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum pressure of 1008 millibars and was moving west at 12 mph.
Forecast for Dorian
Dorian is forecast to gradually intensify while tracking generally west to west-northwest (see figure 1).
But because Dorian is a small system, and some dry air that is present to the north and west, confidence in the intensity forecast is low.
The official forecast from the NHC is for a category 1 hurricane by late Tuesday/Wednesday.
The NHC intensity forecast might be a bit too bullish, though, as the global models (ECMWF, GFS and UKMET) keep Dorian a tropical storm.
The northeast Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Dorian.
It is too early to say if Dorian will be an issue for the Continental United States.
Invest 98L
Invest 98L, now located just east of Florida, is still expected to develop early next week.
In their 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC put the chance of development at 70 percent over the next 2 days and 90 percent over the next 5 days.
Model guidance is in good agreement on a track out to sea, parallel to the U.S. East Coast.
However, interests along the East Coast should still monitor the progress of Invest 98L.
