After a lull in activity the tropics are waking up. Hurricane Fiona, which is the season’s first major hurricane, is continuing to intensify as it begins to move away from the Turks and Caicos this evening. Maximum sustained have increased to 125 mph and the minimum central pressure has dropped to 951 mb as of the 8 PM EDT advisory.
Fiona will track just west of Bermuda late Thursday/early Friday before impacting the Canadian Maritimes as a very strong extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone this weekend.
Tropical Storm Gaston has formed in the north-central Atlantic and does not pose a threat to any land areas aside from the Azores.
There are also two tropical waves being monitored for development. One is still over Africa and the other, Invest 98L, is just east of the Lesser Antilles/Windward Islands. Of these two waves, Invest 98L is of most concern to the continental United States (CONUS).
Model guidance has been very bullish with development of Invest 98L for the past day or two. There is a solid model consensus for development. The National Hurricane Center is giving Invest 98L a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone (70 percent through the next 2 days and 90 percent through the next 5 days).
Invest 98L is moving west-northwest and will pass through the southern Windward Islands tomorrow, eventually reaching the central Caribbean by late this week and western Caribbean by this weekend/early next week.
While Invest 98L could become a tropical depression or storm within the next few days, it appears environmental conditions will be quite favorable for development/intensification in the central/western Caribbean. Model guidance has also been quite aggressive with the intensity once it reaches the central/western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF, with ensemble support, develop Invest 98L into a significant hurricane in the western Caribbean next week.
Current indications are that Invest 98L could pose a threat to parts of the Gulf Coast or Florida Peninsula later next week. However, it is too early to say where exactly Invest 98L will end up in the long-term.
Having said that, it does look like there will be a trough in the eastern U.S./western Atlantic early next week that will allow Invest 98L to move north out of the Caribbean next week. When/if it lifts out and the strength/position of Invest 98L early next week will determine when/if Invest 98L turns north.
The latest ensemble guidance highlights the range of possible outcomes well. By next Wednesday Invest 98L could be located anywhere from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Bahamas/southwest Atlantic.
For now Invest 98L is nothing to be overly concerned about, but it is worth keeping a close eye on in the coming days.
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