Activity in the Tropics Likely to Pick up Soon

While Invest 99L, which was upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Friday, failed to develop into a tropical cyclone before moving onshore in northeast Mexico yesterday, there are indications that the tropics will continue to become more active. This of course is not unusual as we are headed into the peak weeks of the hurricane season.

As Ben Noll, a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research in New Zealand, tweeted, tropical forcing will favor Atlantic tropical cyclone activity at least into next month. Rising air is expected over the eastern Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean with sinking air over the Pacific.

Latest five-day graphical tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center. (NHC/NWS/NOAA)

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands that has a 20 percent chance of development over the next 5 days. However, it remains to be seen if it will be able to overcome the dry air/stability that has been suppressing tropical cyclone development in the Main Development Region so far this season. Right now model support is limited.

Other than the wave highlighted by the NHC, there are no other specific areas of concern in the tropics. However, model guidance (both deterministic and ensemble output) is now starting to show an increase in activity going through the end of the month. The latest runs of both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS develop several, albeit different, disturbances across the Atlantic basin over the next 7 to 10 days.

It should also be noted that the recent quiet period does not mean that seasonal outlooks calling for a busy season will not verify.

So, while the tropics remain fairly quiet, things are likely to pick up in the coming weeks. Having said that, it is worth reiterating that there are no specific threats/areas of concerns at this time. And an increase in activity would coincide with climatology.

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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