An area of low pressure (Invest 99L) emerged in the Bay of Campeche this morning and is showing signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring Invest 99L for tropical development for the past few days over the Caribbean.
Convective (shower and thunderstorm) activity has increased and become more persistent/concentrated throughout the day, indicating Invest 99L is becoming better organized. A USAF Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is enroute to investigate Invest 99L at the time of this writing.
Wind shear was somewhat high this morning but has abated a bit this afternoon based on the latest shear analysis from CIMSS. The NHC is now giving Invest 99L a high (70 percent) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.
Invest 99L will come onshore in northeast Mexico tomorrow; the latest track guidance is in excellent agreement on this. Given that Invest 99L has a limited amount of time left over water, it is unlikely to become too strong should it develop into a TC. A tropical depression or tropical storm would be the most likely outcome.
Regardless of development, Invest 99L will bring some much needed rain to parts of south Texas.
Should Invest 99L become a tropical storm it will take the name Danielle.
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