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Advisories Initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 14; Likely to Become Tropical Storm Michael Tomorrow

Invest 91L has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 (PTC 14). The first official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for landfall on Wednesday near Fort Walton Beach, FL as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. However, there is low confidence in both the intensity and… Continue reading

Tropical Update: Invest 91L Getting More Organized

Analysis:  Data from CIMSS shows that the multiple areas of vorticity are beginning to congeal, meaning 91L is gradually getting more organized. However, shear is still hampering development (as expected), blowing convection to the east and preventing the “center” from closing off. Model guidance:  All of the reliable global model guidance… Continue reading

Tropical Update: Invest 91L Designated in Caribbean; Likely to Develop

The area of low pressure that we have been tracking in the Caribbean for the past several days has been designated Invest 91L. Per 18z best track data, 91L was located just off the coast of Honduras. Analysis:  Invest 91L, being part of a Central American Gyre (CAG), is currently… Continue reading

Tropical Update: Northwest Caribbean/Gulf Development Looking Likely This Weekend, Early Next Week

Tropical development in the northwest Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico is looking likely this weekend going into early next week. Analysis: The broad area of low pressure that formed yesterday over the southwest Caribbean Sea has moved little. The center is located near Nicaragua and Honduras per visible satellite imagery… Continue reading

Tropical Update: Caribbean Development Looking Increasingly Likely

Tropical development in the western Caribbean is looking more likely this weekend going into next week. Analysis:  A broad area of low pressure has now formed in the SW Caribbean. The associated convective activity is sporadic and disorganized. Shear has decreased in the immediate vicinity of this low. However, it… Continue reading

Tropical Update: Caribbean Development Still a Possibility

Tropical development in the west Caribbean late this week going into next week remains a possibility. Analysis: A broad area of disturbed weather has already formed over the extreme SW Caribbean. However, shear is currently high across much of the Caribbean (see figure 2). This is impeding development. Model guidance: The… Continue reading

Tropical Update: West Caribbean Development Possible in 8 – 10 Days

We mentioned back on the 17th that conditions in the Caribbean/Gulf would favor an increase in tropical activity. Long-range model guidance is now picking up on this. The ECMWF (euro), GFS, and UKMET are all in agreement on a broad area of low pressure to forming in the SW Caribbean… Continue reading

Tropical Update: Kirk a Tropical Storm Again

The remnants of Kirk were able to develop a closed center overnight per another ASCAT pass — meaning we now have Tropical Storm Kirk (again). At the 5 AM EDT/AST advisory, Kirk was moving west at 18 mph with 40 mph winds a minimum central pressure of 1004 millibars. Analysis: Kirk… Continue reading

Tropical Update: Watching Remnants of Kirk for Redevelopment

  Kirk officially degenerated yesterday morning at the 11 AM EDT/AST advisory. This is because an ASCAT pass revealed that there was no closed center. It appears that fast forward speed and dry air were the cause of dissipation. While no longer a tropical cyclone (TC), Kirk’s remnants remain a… Continue reading

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