Invest 95L Could Develop Later This Week

Figure 1. Latest 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center.
Figure 1. 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 AM EDT this morning. The yellow area represents the potential genesis area.

The tropical wave that passed through the Lesser Antilles yesterday is now Invest 95L.

Analysis

Due to a persistent ribbon of strong wind shear, Invest 95L is disorganized, with little in the way of convection or vorticity (spin).

Immediate development not likely

Wind shear, along with land interaction with the Greater Antilles, should prevent development over the next day or two.

However, by Wednesday or Thursday Invest 95L will have tracked into the Bahamas/Southwest Atlantic, where environmental conditions might be more conducive for development by this time.

In their 8 AM EDT update, the National Hurricane Center gave Invest 95L a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 5 days (see figure 1).

Model guidance

As of the 00z model cycle, the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET were not predicting development of Invest 95L.

Figure 2. GEFS predicted mean MSLP and ensemble members pressure centers as for early Saturday. A few members show development of Invest 95L near the northern Bahamas. Image: Tropical Tidbits

With that being said, there are still a few EPS (ECMWF) and GEFS (GFS ensembles) members with development.

Track and intensity

If Invest 95L does manage to develop, it is too early to pin down where it could track or how strong it might become.

Southeast, East Coast should monitor

The Southeast and East Coast should monitor the progress of Invest 95L.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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