Caleb Carmichael

There is now a high chance (70 percent) of a tropical cyclone forming in the northwest Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico later this week. Exact track and intensity are still unknown, but model guidance has been coming into better agreement on increasing…

Tropical development remains a possibility in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week. However, nothing has really changed since yesterday’s update. Development is expected to occur as a result of a Central American Gyre (CAG). This makes…

It is increasingly likely that a tropical cyclone (TC) is going to form in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico during the middle or end of next week. Looking at the latest model guidance, the ECMWF, GFS, and…

After a slow start to the peak of what is predicted to be a hyperactive hurricane season, it seems that activity is about to pick up some. There are currently three areas of interest being monitored for tropical development across…

Idalia strengthened into a category 1 hurricane overnight over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are up to 80 mph and the minimum central pressure is down to 977 millibars. Data from reconnaissance aircraft also indicates a closed…

Tropical Depression Ten has formed in the northwest Caribbean. Expected to become a hurricane in the eastern Gulf. Initial forecast track from the NHC has landfall in the Big Bend Wednesday. However, changes are possible over the next day or…

It is increasingly likely that a broad area low pressure in the northwest Caribbean will develop into a tropical cyclone as it lifts north into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving the…

It appears that the hurricane season might be about to pick up in the Atlantic. This is not surprising given that we are moving into the climatological peak weeks of the season. With that being said, it should be stated…