The Atlantic hurricane season has been extremely quiet this year. So far there have only been 8 named storms – none of which strengthened into a hurricane. For comparison, in an average Atlantic hurricane season the basin would have had its 11th tropical storm and 6th hurricane develop by now. This is because of an El Nino in the Pacific that is on track to become the strongest recorded.
Of the tropical storms that have formed, 3 developed in the Gulf and impacted the U.S. Gulf Coast. Keeping with that theme, the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring the potential for a tropical cyclone to develop in the southwestern Gulf late this week.
Global model guidance, including ensembles, are coming into agreement on at least a broad area of low pressure forming by midweek. From there, models diverge a bit. While they do indicate that this low will lift north, they disagree on how much it will organize.
Looking at the deterministic models, the GFS and UKMET develop this system into a moderate to strong tropical storm with landfall along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast late this week into this weekend. Meanwhile, the ECMWF develops the system into a a very broad and weak tropical storm at best. The AI versions of the GFS and ECMWF aren’t much different than their physics based counterparts. Ensemble guidance is also indicating increasing chances for tropical cyclone formation.
Currently, the National Hurricane Center places the chance of development at 40 percent over the next 7 days.
Wind shear is likely to be an detriment to any potential tropical cyclone lifting north toward the Gulf Coast next week. Regardless of tropical development, additional heavy rainfall accompanied by a continued flood risk is likely across the Central Gulf Coast later this week. For now this is just something to monitor.
