There is now an actual disturbance to track in the southwest Gulf in association with possible tropical development this week. It has been designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center. Development chances have increased to 60 percent over the next 2 days and 80 percent over the next 7 days.
Most deterministic and ensemble guidance, including AI models such as the Google Deep Mind, continue to show Invest 92L developing and eventually moving north toward the Gulf Coast this weekend. However, there are some vast differences in intensity.
The GFS, UKMET and AI ECMWF, as well as the Google Deep Mind ensembles, favor a more cohesive and stronger system. The ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles favor a broad and weak system.
Should we see a tropical storm or hurricane threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend, wind shear and dry air is still likely to be an issue – specifically as it approaches landfall.
The NOAA hurricane hunters have a synoptic surveillance mission scheduled for tomorrow which should help with computer model output.
Right now this continues to just be something to keep an eye on.
