Invest 91L is gradually organizing in the Bay of Campeche. Analysis Convective activity remains disorganized. However, vorticity has increased, with broad cyclonic turning evident. Wind shear also remains low in the vicinity of 91L per the most recent wind shear…
The broad area of low pressure over that was over the Yucatan Peninsula yesterday is now over the Bay of Campeche, and has been tagged Invest 91L. Analysis Wind shear remains very conducive for development, with values only in the…
It is looking like we could see some tropical “mischief” in the southwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Model guidance Since yesterday, the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS have all been hinting at tropical development in the Bay of Campeche between…
While investigating Invest 90L this afternoon, a USAF reconnaissance aircraft found a well-defined low-level center of circulation and winds of 40 mph, prompting an upgrade to Subtropical Storm Andrea. As of the 5:30 PM special advisory package, Andrea was located…
An area of disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas, which is associated with a surface trough, has been designated invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. Analysis 40 kts of westerly wind shear is hindering development at this time.…
There is a chance for some tropical and/or subtropical development just south of Bermuda early next week. Special TWO issued for the Atlantic… 30% chance for tropical/subtropical development over the next 5 days. pic.twitter.com/727XgRMxTw — Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX)…
The surface trough we have been watching near Florida is now moving out of Florida and into the far western Atlantic, just off the coast of the Southeast US. Wind shear is still too high for development. A pocket of…
The surface trough being watched for possible tropical/subtropical development, which was traversing the Bahamas yesterday, is now located over south Florida. Analysis Looking at satellite imagery, the surface trough is still producing some limited convective activity. But wind shear continues…
It might not be hurricane season yet, but we have an area of interest to watch in the tropics: a trough of low pressure in the Bahamas. Analysis It is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, as seen on…
A vigorous tropical wave just east of the Leeward Islands, Invest 96-L, has a chance of becoming tropical/subtropical cyclone this week. 25 – 30 knots of shear is currently impeding development. This will likely abate some by tomorrow into Wednesday…