The potential for tropical development in the northeast Gulf of Mexico next week is increasing.
Latest from the National Hurricane Center
Here is the latest from from the NHC as of their 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook:
A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week. Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
They note that they think gradual development is possible as of now, and thus have introduced 20% 5-day development probabilities (see figure 1).
The trough of low pressure (disturbance) is expected to reach the NE Gulf either Monday or Tuesday.
Model guidance
Taking a look at the three reliable models used for predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (ECMWF, GFS and UKMET):
The ECMWF has remained consistent in predicting development of a tropical storm in the northeast Gulf by Thursday;
The GFS has dropped the idea of development;
The UKMET has joined the ECMWF, showing development of a tropical storm in the northeast Gulf late Thursday/early Friday (see figure 2).
Looking at the latest ensemble guidance, support from the GFS ensembles has decreased.
Support from the ECMWF ensembles (EPS) has increased, with the EPS now at a 70 – 80 percent chance of at least a tropical depression developing in the northeast Gulf by Thursday.
Still a large amount of uncertainty
Model support has increased some more since yesterday. Additionally, wind shear is currently low in the northeast Gulf, and forecast to remain low through through next week.
Sea surface temperatures are also running well above-average, with actual readings as high as 30 and 31 degrees Celsius (see figure 3).
All of the above is favorable for tropical development.
However, we still don’t know if we will actually get development or not. This is because the system that could spark development is small, making it hard to predict (this was discussed in more detail yesterday).
Because we don’t know if a TC will form, it makes it impossible to address specifics (track, intensity, impacts etc.)
Just something to watch for now
There is no reason to panic.
Right now, this is just something to keep an eye on if you live in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida (although Texas doesn’t appear to be at too high of a risk presently).
Monitor the forecast
Be sure to monitor the forecast from your local TV station and National Weather Service forecast office (WFO).
You can find a map of all WFO’s HERE. You could also review your hurricane kit/plan as well. If a TC develops there won’t be much time to prepare (perhaps a day or two).
Tropical Storm Barry?
If we get a TC to from in the Gulf next week, it would be named Barry.
We crossed Andrea off of the list back in May.
