The center of the broad area of low pressure that has been traversing Central America for the past few days has emerged into the Bay of Campeche, and has been designated Invest 96L. Development chance Environmental conditions in the Bay…
The risk for tropical or subtropical development in the western Gulf late this week is increasing. A broad area of low pressure centered Central America is going to emerge into the Bay of Campeche Wednesday. Conditions are currently conducive for…
A broad area of low pressure has formed over Central America. Because of land interaction, development is unlikely over the next three days or so. However, the low will move into the Bay of Campeche by mid to late week,…
Tropical development is a possibility in the northwest Caribbean this weekend/early next week. Broad area of low pressure to form in west Caribbean A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in the southwest Caribbean Saturday or Sunday,…
The broad area of low pressure that formed in the northwest Caribbean this week has moved into the southwest Gulf of Mexico, but is no longer being monitored for tropical development. Wind shear is still too high for development, and…
A broad area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean Sea still has a chance, albeit low, for tropical development. Strong upper-level winds (wind shear) continue to hinder any organization. There is still a possibility that conditions could become more…
A broad area of low pressure has formed in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Because of a 25 – 30 knot ribbon of shear, near-term development is unlikely As of the 00z model cycle, neither the ECMWF, UKMET or GFS were…
Scatterometer (satellite) data from earlier this afternoon indicate the Karen no longer has a closed low-level center of circulation. Additionally, convection has decreased both spatially and in organization. As a result, Karen is no longer a tropical cyclone. Karen’s remnants…
Karen still has not re-strengthened. As of 5 AM EDT/AST, Karen had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum pressure of 1004 mb, and was moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Forecast for Karen Considering Karen has yet to re-strengthen, the…
Despite decreasing wind shear, Karen has yet to strengthen; in fact, based on data from a recon aircraft, Karen has actually weakened (again). As of 5 PM EDT/AST, Karen had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum pressure of 1003…