Tropical Update: Invest 97L Continuing to Become Better Organized; Likely to Become a Short-Lived Tropical Cyclone

Figure 1. Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 AM EDT October 25, 2019.

Invest 97L is continuing to get better organized. Surface pressures continue to fall, and convective (shower/thunderstorm) activity has been persistent.

Based on the continued organization, it does appear likely 97L will become a tropical cyclone, either a depression or storm, later today.

In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center had increased the chance of development to 70 percent (see figure 1).

A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 97L this afternoon.

However, this should be a short-lived tropical cyclone (TC), as it will likely merge with a cold front currently located in east Texas by tonight.

Figure 2. Track guidance for 97L as of 7 AM CDT October 25, 2019. Image: NCAR/RAL

The center of soon-to-be Tropical Depression Seventeen or Tropical Storm Olga is likely to move ashore in Louisiana tonight or early Saturday morning.

The primary impact will be heavy rain (see figure 3), but with 97L likely to become a TC, additional impacts are now anticipated.

Figure 3. Forecast rainfall through 7 AM CDT October 28, 2019. Image: Pivotal Weather

In addition to rain, wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph will be possible for coastal Louisiana and coastal Mississippi tonight into early Saturday.

Strong wind gusts can be expected along the Texas Gulf Coast too, but this will be from the aforementioned front.

There could also be some coastal flooding issues.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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