Cool, Unsettled Pattern Next Week

Figure 2. ECMWF 500 millibar height and anomaly forecast for the Monday – Friday time frame showing the progression/evolution of the trough.

The pattern change we discussed in our previous post settles in next week.

A trough is going to dig into the Central part of the country this weekend, sending a front across the Southern tier of the country. Early next week, the trough is going to dig into the South, and slide to the southwest, becoming positioned across the mid/lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday where it will remain through the end of the week/this upcoming weekend (see figure 1).

Thunderstorm coverage will begin to increase this weekend with the passage of the front initially. While the trough remains located over Mississippi Valley, it will bring generally wet, unsettled weather with periods of showers/thunderstorms to much of the Gulf Coast Region. This will be very similar to the pattern we had last week through this weekend — albeit slightly farther west. So, we could potentially see some strong/severe storms again; however, it severe potential is yet to be determined.

Figure 2. Temperature and precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 31st – August 4th.

Our persistent ridge that brought the recent episode of oppressive heat will also get nudged west by the trough next week. The result of the ridge moving west  (and the overall wet, unsettled pattern) will be cooler, average-below average temperatures for a good chunk of the Gulf Coast Region starting Monday. Afternoon highs should drop down into the lower mid to upper 80s/lower 90s.

Unfortunately, the trough will likely stay just far enough to the east for far South Texas and parts West-Central Texas to have to continue to deal with above average temperatures. Although, the heat won’t be quiet as extreme as it has been. The same is true for the Central/South Florida, where temps look to lean more average/above average.

Looking ahead, it appears the pattern will remained locked in through the week of August 5th – 11th at the minimum.

Image/GIF: [ Tropical Tidbits ]


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