Wet and Stormy Tomorrow – Monday; Much Colder Air Next Week

A storm system will  bring wet and stormy weather to much of the Gulf Coast this weekend into early next week.

Meanwhile, looking ahead to next week, a pattern change that will result in much colder air across the Central and Eastern US, including the Gulf Coast region, remains likely to occur.

(For information on the aforementioned pattern change, see our previous update on it: link)

Weekend Storm System

A storm system is going to develop over the South-Central US tomorrow and sweep across much of the south, including the Gulf Coast, through Monday, bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Convective outlook for tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center.

There will be a threat for severe weather across parts of Northern and Central Texas tomorrow, where the Storm Prediction Center has currently hatched a marginal to enhanced risk of severe weather.

The primary threats will be damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.

However, the threat for severe weather is not likely to shift east Sunday and Monday, as many of the parameters needed to support severe thunderstorms will not be in place. Though, a few strong to severe storms can’t be completely ruled out.

Cold Air

Two intrusions of cold, arctic air expected next week, with the first being mid-week next week, and the second being next weekend.

Mid-week Next Week

A large, deep upper-level trough will dig into the Central and Eastern US Tuesday, bringing an associated cold front quickly and swiftly across the entire Gulf Coast region Tuesday into Wednesday.

ECMWF 2-meter temperature anomaly forecast valid Wednesday, October 25, 2017.

Subsequently, after the front passes, a much colder and drier air mass will move in, dropping temperatures up to 8 – 14 degrees Fahrenheit below normal Tuesday night through Thursday/Thursday night. Overnight low temperatures are likely to drop into the 40s down into coastal locations Wednesday and Thursday night.

Next Weekend

A second upper-level trough will likely dig into the Central and Eastern US this weekend, bringing another reinforcing cold front with it that will likely drop temperatures below normal once again.

However, there is still some uncertainty — particularly regarding placement and strength of the trough.

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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