Tropical Update: Hurricane Season About to Pick Up?

It appears that the hurricane season might be about to pick up in the Atlantic. This is not surprising given that we are moving into the climatological peak weeks of the season. With that being said, it should be stated that there is nothing of immediate concern or that poses a threat to the mainland United States at this time.

The National Hurricane Center has two areas of interest in their 7-day tropical weather outlook. One is a tropical wave expected to move off of Africa Wednesday or Thursday. The other is an area of low pressure that could form over the central tropical Atlantic by mid to late week and develop as it moves generally west-northwest. Both currently have a low chance of development.

Looking at the model guidance, both areas of interest have some, but not any solid, support. The GFS and ECMWF both develop the tropical wave over Africa along with some GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. However, only the latest run of the CMC and some ECMWF ensemble members have development from the area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic.

It remains to be seen if it is still too hostile in the tropical Atlantic for either area of interest to be able to undergo tropical cyclogenesis. For now they are not a significant concern.

ECMWF ensemble probability of a tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength developing. This map is for days 6 – 8. (

In addition to the two areas the National Hurricane Center is monitoring, model guidance is signaling that a tropical wave could try to develop as it tracks west-northwest across the Gulf this weekend into early next week.

However, for now this is nothing to be concerned about either.

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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