Ian is now a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Movement is now north at 12 mph. Additional strengthening is still expected today over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The 5 AM EDT forecast track continues to bring the center onshore near Tampa early Thursday as a category 3 hurricane. However, model guidance has trended farther south overnight with a landfall between Fort Myers and Tampa.
A track south of Tampa would minimize surge impacts there, but this is not a guarantee yet as models could continue to fluctuate.
A considerable decrease in forward speed is still expected near/after landfall which will prolong impacts.
The 5 AM EDT track brings Ian north through central and north Florida Friday into Saturday.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas and from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. Tropical storm conditions are likely to arrive within the hurricane warning area by late today into early tomorrow with hurricane conditions expected by tomorrow morning.
Impacts from Ian will extend inland into central and north Florida as well.
As much as 10-20” of rain is forecast across central and north Florida which will result in flooding. Small stream/river flooding will is also likely.
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