Strong to severe storms are going to be possible once again during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. The Storm Prediction Center already has the area in a 15% (slight) risk for severe weather.
An occluded surface low/cyclone is going to track out of the Rockies/Plains and into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes by early Wednesday. This will bring a trailing cold front across the area Wednesday.
There are some model differences with respect to timing. Based on the latest model runs, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible sometime late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Model guidance is advertising favorable/strong wind shear across the area late Tuesday night/Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS both have strong southwesterly flow aloft and a 40 – 60 kt southerly low-level jet spreading over the region Tuesday night/Wednesday.
However, as of now models are generally projecting low CAPE (instability) values.
It is still too early to really get into specifics (exact timing, magnitude of the threat, etc.). With that being said, all severe hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail) appear possible at this time.
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