Those in the central and eastern U.S. will get their first real taste of spring this upcoming week. A temporary shift in the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), a teleconnection, is going to alter the upper-level pattern.
The result will be a 500 mb ridge (high pressure) over the eastern U.S. and a trough in the west. This will cause much above average temperatures for much of the central and eastern U.S. from about Monday through Tuesday/Wednesday.
Warmer temperatures will stick around a bit longer, likely through Friday, across portions of the south/southeast and perhaps into the Mid-Atlantic. Looking at the latest model guidance, it is likely some parts of the south/southeast will experience several days of high temperatures in the 80s.
In addition to above-normal temperatures, there will also be a risk for severe weather across portions of the southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Ohio Valley.
The Storm Prediction Center has defined a slight (level 2 out f 5) risk for severe weather for the Ark-La-Tex region Monday.
A 15 percent risk (equivalent to a slight risk) for severe weather has also been defined for the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley for Tuesday.
Heavy rainfall/flooding will also be a concern based on the latest 1-7 day quantitative precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).
However, this will not be winter’s last gasp. A strong cold front is likely to push across the southeast Friday. There could also be some wintry precipitation for parts of north Texas, the Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Ohio Valley mid to late week in association with this front.
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