A severe weather threat is looking likely next Wednesday and Thursday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
The trigger is going to be a shortwave (mid/upper level disturbance) that will move into the southern Plains Wednesday. On Thursday, the shortwave will lift to the northeast across the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley.
It is still too early for specifics, but confidence is high enough that the SPC has defined a 15% (slight, or level 2 out of 5) risk area for both days.
Instability looks like it will be limited at this time. However, model guidance is advertising ample vertical wind shear.
We will known more (hazards/threats, timing, etc.) in the coming days.
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