A significant severe weather event is going to unfold from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley tonight into early tomorrow.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded northeast Arkansas, far west Tennessee and Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and far southern Illinois to a moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk.
Northern Mississippi and the extreme northwest corner of Alabama remain in an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk.
Storms are expected to develop this evening across east Texas, northern Louisiana, Arkansas, and eastern Missouri along/ahead of a cold front and spread east overnight/early tomorrow. While storms will be discrete and supercells possible initially, model guidance indicates a more linear storm mode will eventually become dominant.
Tornadoes (a few strong), damaging wind gusts, and large hail will all be likely across the enhanced and moderate risk areas. The fact that this will be a nocturnal, or nighttime, event makes it more dangerous. Be sure to have a way to get watches/warnings if you are in the risk area tonight.
The severe weather threat will shift east tomorrow. A slight (level 2 out of 5) risk area has now been defined by the SPC and includes northwest Alabama. There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for much of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama; the western Florida Panhandle is no longer included.
A line of storms expected to develop overnight/early tomorrow will progress east through the day, posing a threat primarily for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two.
Storms should begin to weaken as they move into south Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle tomorrow afternoon/evening due to decreasing instability.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
