The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk for severe weather to enhanced (level 3 out of 5) for northern Mississippi and extreme northwest Alabama tomorrow.
A slight (level 2 out of 5) risk remains in place for northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and a portion of northwest Alabama and has been extended into northeast Texas.
Based on current high resolution model guidance, storms will develop across east Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi tomorrow night and shift east overnight in tandem with a cold front.
Storms will initially be isolated/discrete, and some supercells are possible. However, a more linear storm mode is expected later, and a line of storms should develop at some point overnight/early Saturday.
All hazards (damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail) remain possible and will be most likely in the enhanced risk area. While instability still looks to be somewhat limited, low-level wind shear will be favorable for tornadoes, and a strong tornado or two will be possible.
The line of storms will push into central and south Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Saturday morning as the cold front continues to advance east. But the severe weather threat should begin to diminish by this time as the line of storms is expected to be weakening.
The SPC has added a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk area for Saturday. Damaging winds will become the primary threat due to the linear storm mode. An isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out though.
A much cooler and drier air mass will filter in behind the front throughout the day Saturday.
Temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s by Saturday evening for most locations as shown by the GFS model.
