Tropical Storm Nicholas has formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. As of the 10 AM CDT advisory, Nicholas had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb, and was moving north-northwest at 13 mph.
The initial forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has Nicholas making landfall over Matagorda Bay, Texas Tuesday morning.
However, there is some spread in this morning’s 12z track guidance, and Nicholas could make landfall in northeast Mexico as early as tomorrow morning, or parallel the coast of Texas before making landfall late Tuesday/early Wednesday in southwest Louisiana.
Warm sea surface temperatures of 30 to 31 degrees Celsius and a moist environment should allow Nicholas to strengthen over the next day or two. But moderate wind shear in the 15 to 20 knot range and possible land interaction could limit intensification during this time.
Looking at the latest SHIPS intensity forecast, an increase in dry air and shear will also be possible by Tuesday/Wednesday. This could induce weakening if Nicholas is still over water.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Nicholas becoming a high-end tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph before landfall Tuesday morning.
Having said that, the GFS has been off and on with Nicholas becoming a low-end hurricane. While not expected at this time, it is an outcome that can’t be discounted.
Regardless of intensity, Nicholas is going to slow down near/after landfall and bring periods of heavy rain to portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana tomorrow through Wednesday/Thursday.
The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting widespread rainfall accumulations of 6 – 10″ and accumulations of 10 – 15″ in some areas. This will very likely cause flooding.
In addition to heavy rain/flooding, a storm surge of 2 to 4′ is forecast by the NHC along portions of the Texas coast. There will also be a threat for severe weather (tornadoes, waterspouts) in outer bands/squalls.
Strong/damaging winds will also be likely for parts of the Texas coast, and possibly southwest Louisiana coast, but the wind impact will be dependent on how strong Nicholas gets.
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