Ida strengthened into a hurricane this morning. Currently the center is tracking across western Cuba and is about to emerge into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Radar data from Cuba shows a fairly well defined eye/eyewall, indicating that Ida has not been effected much by this land interaction.
As of the 8 PM EDT advisory, Ida had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and a minimum central pressure of 985 mb. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.
Once over the Gulf it is likely Ida will likely rapidly intensify. Wind shear is light, mid-level humidity values are high, and sea surface temperatures are favorable for tropical cyclone development/intensification. In addition, Ida will be moving over the loop current which has high oceanic heat content (heat extends well below the surface).
The current intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings Ida up to a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph by Sunday afternoon. All of the model guidance, including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF continue to show Ida significantly deepening/strengthening over the Gulf as well.
All things considered, it is not out of the question that Ida could become a category 5 hurricane.
However, as the National Hurricane Center noted in their 5 PM EDT forecast discussion, eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity as Ida tracks across the Gulf.
Model guidance has finally stopped shifting around and it is likely Ida will make landfall between Vermillion Bay, LA and Grand Isle, LA during the day Sunday. Some slight shifts east/west remain possible but are ultimately unlikely.
Southwest Louisiana to as far east as the far western Florida Panhandle will be impacted by Ida. However, in south-central and southeast Louisiana the impacts will be significant to potentially catastrophic.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a peak storm surge of 7 to 15′ from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Up to 10 – 20″ of rain is also forecast south-central and southeast Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Heavy rain will also be possible as far east as the western Florida Panhandle, where 4 – 6″ of rain is forecast.
Hurricane force winds will also occur across south-central and southeast Louisiana and possibly coastal Mississippi. Tropical storm force winds will also be possible as far east as coastal Alabama.
Isolated tornadoes will also be a concern with outer bands/squalls. Rough surf/high seas are also expected, and there will be a high risk for rip currents along most northern Gulf Coast beaches.
After landfall Ida will turn north and then northeast and move into the southeast U.S. bringing the threat of heavy rain and likely a risk for severe weather.
Interests in the Hurricane Warning area should be putting their hurricane plan into action. Heed the advice of local officials. If you are told to evacuate do so. Ida will be a very dangerous, life threatening storm.
Tropical storm force winds could arrive as early as tomorrow night.
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For updates on the tropics you can also follow Hurricane Central and Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
